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Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Stock trading, currency trading, stocket markets, forex, your name it: What can you learn the Celts vs. the Lackers Last Evening Game

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Stock traders, currency traders, forex traders, stock market traders and investors:

Live from a place in Harvard Square in Cambridge, MA. A more precise location is at the end of the article. So keep reading.

This is a rough draft of ideas that I would polish later. But read further to have an idea of my thoughts.

I was taking my lunch, and thought to write a piece on what one learn in area of trading from last evening magic game between two great american franchises: the celts and the lackers.

Step back a bit to yesterday before the start of the game. Here is what a bull of celts would think:

1. Celts have won more games, and therefore the daily trend is on their side
2. They have an edge(s?): they are at home, have good record at home, etc.
3. Their players and management are hungry to win, and they have show it in earnings which translates to win. This means the fundamentals are good.

Now the BUT:
4. The celts fan would also say, but they lost the previous day, and we will wait and see how they will do early in this game before we can say this is in the bag. In other words, they were waiting for action of a new day to see if it is better than the previous day.

Here is how a fan of the lackers would feel (hope) (Notice that I did not use the word think):

1. Although they are down in daily count, they won the last game and we the hopeful, hope that they will win this game.
2. We cannot rule a win, but down deep we are anxious. Let us forget worries for this game.
3. Let us be positive, cheer the lackers and hope for win. Let us forget about the probs. After all probs are just numbers and they sometimes miss, etc,

So above you have a bulls of celts (rational but yet cautious) and a bear of celts (bull of lackers) very hopefull, but deep down he has worries. It is similar in a bear leg for bulls, and a bull leg for bears.

Now after the game started and the celts looking great:

1. A Celts bull would conclude. I have the confirmation that this day is up for the celts. The probs are on my side, etc. This is totally different from the last game. Given the daily trend (point 1), the edge of the celts (point2), the fundamentals behind the celts (point 3), and the evidence shown in early game action, now I can with reason, put aside my justified worries (point 4). I am now confident that they would win it. BUT (they is always a but in a rational mind) you never know. We have to stay cautious and make sure that the manageer can cut any unusual play action by executing better, or as a last resort by taking a time out (the stops).

Reason like a Celts fan of last evening, and you are a step ahead of 90% of your competition in the stock market. 90% of traders in the stock market are like yesterday's lackers fans.

Written on/next to the bridge on charles river next to harvard square between the kennedy school of governemt, and the harvard business school

PS: I have a trading method exactly similar to the above. More in the future.

Happy trading

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Happy trading,


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