Monday, July 7, 2008
NDX trading, QQQQ Trading, NQ trading July 7, 2008
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Stock traders, Investors, Forex traders, and market watchers:
This post will be organized in multiple sections:
1. Some remarks
2. Summary of experiment (to follow later)
3. Today's stock market moves
Some remarks:
The forcaest made last week about the dollar vs. Euro took place. The dollar went up, and the euro down. The oil followed today. We have explained in previous articles, that a up dollar leads to commodities price down.
Equities (stocks) typically give a nod to this, and go up. But this does not mean we are out of the woods for stocks. It merely means that they may jump up before prices move down. A bear market has three phaases, each with two legs. We are in leg 1 of phase 2.
Market Moves:
10:41AM: with NDX at 1847 I am starting to scale in on short side (half of normal position size).
11:09: NDX is now at 1837 with 10 NDX points profits. NOTICE: I have to be very vigilent. The open of today was at around 1835, and today finishes in the green this would mean that top's open would be higher than 1834. Therefore, the price can do a lot of games to traders today. It could decide to go back up and even break the high of today. It can also go range bound for a tight trading range. And the scenario that would suit me best is if it break through today's open and close today's gap. I would then decide later, and may even go long if I reach the conclusion that it would finish in the green today. If that case I would close the short position, and then become long on anticipation of price ending in area of 1834 and up towards the close. I find today's price possibilities, very tricky.
OFFICIAL: The morning top has been nailed.
UPDATE: I took off my profits with NDX in area of 1836 (While placing my order NDX fell and I got filled with NDX at 1832). Since I have other things to attend to, I am planning to sell a strangle, and adjust it depending on price action if needed. I will however check the prices later and make a post. If morning top is taken, sellers are currently in area of 1856.
I am treating the afternoon session as if it is another trading day.
This post will be organized in multiple sections:
1. Some remarks
2. Summary of experiment (to follow later)
3. Today's stock market moves
Some remarks:
The forcaest made last week about the dollar vs. Euro took place. The dollar went up, and the euro down. The oil followed today. We have explained in previous articles, that a up dollar leads to commodities price down.
Equities (stocks) typically give a nod to this, and go up. But this does not mean we are out of the woods for stocks. It merely means that they may jump up before prices move down. A bear market has three phaases, each with two legs. We are in leg 1 of phase 2.
Market Moves:
10:41AM: with NDX at 1847 I am starting to scale in on short side (half of normal position size).
11:09: NDX is now at 1837 with 10 NDX points profits. NOTICE: I have to be very vigilent. The open of today was at around 1835, and today finishes in the green this would mean that top's open would be higher than 1834. Therefore, the price can do a lot of games to traders today. It could decide to go back up and even break the high of today. It can also go range bound for a tight trading range. And the scenario that would suit me best is if it break through today's open and close today's gap. I would then decide later, and may even go long if I reach the conclusion that it would finish in the green today. If that case I would close the short position, and then become long on anticipation of price ending in area of 1834 and up towards the close. I find today's price possibilities, very tricky.
OFFICIAL: The morning top has been nailed.
UPDATE: I took off my profits with NDX in area of 1836 (While placing my order NDX fell and I got filled with NDX at 1832). Since I have other things to attend to, I am planning to sell a strangle, and adjust it depending on price action if needed. I will however check the prices later and make a post. If morning top is taken, sellers are currently in area of 1856.
I am treating the afternoon session as if it is another trading day.
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