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Monday, August 4, 2008

Dollar, Equities (stocks), and Commodities May 2008 to today August 08

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Dear investors, stock traders, commodities traders, and forex (dollar) tradings, and all blog readers.

Back in May 08, Editor of this blog penned the note below. Now that we have hindsight, the vision below is a reality. The chain is breaking/changing direction exactly as forecast. Yes one can make accurate economic/market forecasts.

Your comments folks! If you know of any other person or site out there that made or came close to the accurate forecast below, let me know.

On May 07, 2008 we wrote:

"Here is what I think the message of the markets is/going to be:

1. Stock market down because of recession/earnings. Fed does not have much room to cut more.
2. Other countries will cut rates to fight spreading recession, causing interest rate differential between dollar world and non-dollar world to shrink. This is bullish for the dollar (similar to dividend increase in stocks).
3. Point 2. will lead to further strength of the dollar because of momentum in currency pairs created by dollar bulls (change of trend in favor of the dollar), and money running to safety to USA and buying of assets/bonds.
4. Points 1. to 2. will cause commodities to be less in demand, and therefore a reduction in their perceived price will follow. This will translate to weaking in futures prices, helped with a strengthning dollar. Once the down trend is established, the bears (and their aunts) will take care of the bear trend in commodities.

The first wave: dollar up, and market down. Commodities afterwards with possible sharp corrections as a beginning to disorient the bulls before the kill.

Long dollar/short foreign currencies, short US equities and international, and start shorting commodities once a top is comfirmed, etc.


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