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Sunday, August 10, 2008

EURO Dollar (EUR/USD, USD/EUR, EUR-USD, EUR/USD): Wall Street Thinks of it as Rally, We Think of It As Bull Market For The Dollar

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We just read and article in Bloomberg regarding the dollar move.
When pin stripped wall street guys show up, we at this blog, are already counting the profits. Some may still be asleep, while others are still thinking the dollar is in a bear market (as they use the term rally for the dollar's move). Others have just woke up and want to buy the dollar.

Either way this blog is about the bank the 1000 pips, and possibly flip it over for a small and faster number of pips if it is judged to be worth the risk.

Our job is to make the money from the bankers, who then make money from their customers, who then can only lick their wounds and hold bags. Sorry that it is cruel as stated, but currencies are a negative sum game!

The readers of this blog knew about the dollar move before it started. As to the rest, let us say that it is their fault not to read the right material or not to sit under rocks.

To your profits,

Excerpts from Bloomberg are:

"The 4 percent surge against the single European currency this month was enough to prompt Bank of America Corp. to tell its customers to exit trades betting on more gains. Morgan Stanley still forecasts the greenback will approach a record low by October as the U.S. housing slump and credit-market losses keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year."

"Barclays Plc in London and New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. said trading patterns suggest the dollar's 5.1 percent gain in the past three weeks measured by an index of six major trading partners can't be sustained."

That's mostly because there's no indication the U.S. will return to the late 1990s annualized gross domestic product growth of 4.23 percent with inflation running at no more than 3.3 percent. Since September, 2000, the dollar has declined more than 44 percent as inflation accelerated to an annual 5 percent today, growth slowed to 1.9 percent and U.S. interest rates provide no cushion for holding U.S. assets..............."

Unsustainable Recovery

"The dollar strengthened to $1.5005 to the euro last week from $1.5564 on Aug. 1, the biggest weekly increase on a percentage basis since January 2005. It surged 2.08 percent on Aug. 8, touching $1.4998, the most since Sept. 6, 2000, and the second largest rally since the euro was introduced in 1999.".........

U.S. economic data suggest that a sustained recovery isn't imminent, said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America in New York. Interest-rate swaps indicate the currency should trade at about $1.54 per euro, said Sinche, who still forecasts that the dollar will strengthen to $1.45 per euro by the second half of next year."


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