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Sunday, October 12, 2008

october 2008 market bottom: IFM warns world on verge of collapse

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As we wrote on the night of Thursday to Friday, 10-10-2008 would see the bottom of the market (DOW, SP500, NDX, etc). We have traded on this assumption on Friday (read previous article), and we went long at the bottom area, and sold at the top area.

If you read the news, you would note big titles warning of world collapse, and other such warnings. The economy should seriously be in trouble, but the stock markets turmoil would go down.

It is our opinion that what is written there is essentially a reflection of maximum fear and is emotional, which is typical at a market bottom.

No action is really needed now. The equity markets would rebound, and government should keep their money to act when the lows will be retested in the future, or to spend it on the economy.

Here is a recap of what happened over the last couple of days:

1. Britain decided to partly nationalize its banks,
2. Washington began mulling direct loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve to corporate America,
3. Iceland closed its stock exchange as it slipped towards bankruptcy,
4. the International Monetary Fund warned the world is on the verge of collapse, and urged the world's developed nations to work together rather than take individual steps (which they say won't work anyway, because the crisis had become a worldwide problem).

5. And last but not least, this blog ( nailed live for its readers the top and the bottom of Friday's market action with more than 100 ndx points when NDX ran from 1200 to more than 1300 in about an hour's time only! :-)

Do not forget what you are reading now, as when the market price will head up, you would see another time of news such as the credit crisis worries (CDS worries for instance) were over blown, and they will put some numbers to support that. But it will be late for Average Joe who has sold at the bottom on Friday. The then positive news will bring him back to buy stocks later on.

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Happy trading,


Blogger Owner Earnings said...

I'd agree that 10-10 may have been the bottom.

Based on fundamentals things are at fair value.

October 12, 2008 at 2:59 PM  

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