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Sunday, November 23, 2008

The Carry Trade Is Back (How to take your piece of the action)

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(November 24, 2008: PROFIT TAKING ALERT. 10:15AM with NDX at 1119, we are taking profits on long position. Deatils will be included in post later today)

10:32AM: with NDX at 1134, all long positions are closed.

10:33AM: with NDX at 1135 starting to scale in one quarter of normal size position. Direction: short NDX.

There was a typo in email address below. Thanks to the person who noticed it. It is:
temasek.trust (at)gmail (dot) com

10:53AM: I have something to attend to. I am closing the short position. NDX is at 1125. Profits on the covering of short position are: 10 NDX points.

The bottom of Friday is confirmed. The correct way to trade is to wait for pullback to enter long positions. There might be a short retreat from area of today's top to area of 1100/1080, but it is not guaranteed.

If this rally is to be strong, it has to end the day at or above area of 1110.

11:56AM: with NDX at 1139, we are scaling in one quarter normal size. Direction: short NDX (and stock market).

12:28PM: (again something came up, and I have to leave). NDX is now at 1121. We taking the profits as I cannot watch it. Profits are: 18 NDX points.

No position is left open during my absense, and all positions have been profitable, with no loss (or -1 point) after entry. It has been a good day, but I have to go. If there is a further selloff, I will review the market later and determine if I will re-enter the longs and at what level.

To your profits!


The Carry Trade Is Back (How to take your piece of the action):

Carry trade is best known in forex trading (but is not limited to forex trading).
The idea is to own an asset (such as a currency) that pays a rent/interest/dividend
and finance the purchase using a currency that requires a low interest rate.

All work is done online in your account via your broker. You do not require asking for a loan or anything such things.

The beauty of a carry trade is that if you enter at the bottom, is that you place your trade, sit back and do nothing. You are paid your interest everyday at 5:00PM.

In addition to the interest, if you asset rises in price, you also pocket the appreciation in price of your asset. It is like owning a rental appartment bought on a loan (in this case interest rate is very low (.5%)), and rent it (in this case
the rent is the interest which vary depending on your assets).

Carry trades are the bread and butter of old finance, young graduates starting a hedge fund (before blowing up :-)), and of course smart money who enter early (and leave before they are thrown out).

A lot of people came late to the last golden era of carry trade.
The last good time for carry traders was when we called the top on this blog for all carry trade pairs, the queen of which was EUR/Yen. Since then it has been hell for carry traders. But now the corner to hell is starting to appear, this time for the sellers of some carry pairs.

The recent selloff turned the clock back to the period of 2003. Believe it or not, they would do a similar game once more. They would play even then exact same game they played, but they would possibly change some pairs.

The good pairs are not known. That is why we are here to help you find them.

The easy way to play the carry trade for average investors with limited means and experience (and/or those who do not have time to stay in front of screens) is the currency market. You can start very small. There are brokers who can get you going even for $1.

We have looked at the various pairs. With a 10:1 leverage (you can also use 400:1 leverage but we do not recommend you do that as you may be stopped out), you can make between 50% to 150% per year as interest payment to you, using a set of pairs we have short listed, and for which we believe the downside is limited. You will also be shown a way to enter your position to minimize risk.

We have agreed with an entity who has accepted to prepare and market a report that explains which currencies to buy, how to buy them, which brokers to use, and how to place trades, open accounts, etc. All the details of what needs to be done are in the report. The entity will finalize the report and do all the sales processing and management. They will pay us a small royality per sale depending on how well they do. If they do not sell a lot, we get nothing.

The readers of this blog will get a price discount (50%). You should expect a price that would be like something like "pay me a drink" type of price.

The person who is writing the report has a degree in finance journalism.

Send an email to the following address if you want to consider buying the
report. Mention in the subject line or in the body of the email that you are a reader of the financialtraders blog so that you can have the 50% discount. There will be two pages containing the offer (one with the discount, the second without it). You choose which ever you like. The information will be sent to you from the entity that will manage this.

The entity to which you should send an email is the Temasek Trust. Email address is temasek.trust (at)gmail (dot) com . Write that the editors of financialtraders blog have sent you. Subject: Carry Trade Report. You will be sent a link (as soon as it put online) of where and how to order the report.

As for regular trading, tomorrow is an important day for the confirmation (or lack therefore) of the Friday November 21, 2008 stock market bottom. Stay tuned.

Happy trading,


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Happy trading,

4 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

temsek.trust@gmail.com dont work

November 24, 2008 at 5:25 AM  
Blogger doctoralpha said...

Rentech (RTK) Up 22 Percent and Ready to Breakout.

Company: Rentech

Ticker: RTK

Company Snapshot: Rentech is composed of two business segments each focusing on a major global issue, alternative green energy and fertilizer production. Rentech’s alternative energy segment is one of the world's leading synthetic fuels technology and development companies. Over the last twenty-five years, Rentech has developed and patented the Rentech Process, an advanced version of the well-established Fischer-Tropsch process. The Rentech Process can convert a wide array of carbon-bearing materials, including green resources such as biomass and municipal solid waste, into ultra clean fuels and chemicals ranging from jet fuel to diesel gasoline. Rentech’s objective is to help the world reduce its dependency on oil and lower emissions, including greenhouse gases. Rentech’s second business segment is their fertilizer plant Rentech Energy Midwest Corp. -REMC-, located in East Dubuque, IL. REMC is one of the country’s largest nitrogen manufacturers producing nitrogen-based fertilizer products and industrial nitrogen products.

Recommendation: Buy

Recommendation Date: Friday, November 21, 2008 at .50 cents per share

Recommendation Results:
** Friday, November 21, 2008: UP 8.00%
** Monday, November 24, 2008: UP 12.96%
** Since Date of Recommendation: UP 22.00%

________________________________________________________________________________
On Friday, November 21, 2008 we recommended Rentech (Ticker: RTK) with a buy rating at .50 cents a shares. Since then a few positive and significant developments have taken place.

* November 22, 2008 President-elect Barack Obama reaffirmed his support for alternative energy. This includes Rentech’s Fischer-Tropsch technology that converts biomass, natural gas, and coal into liquid fuels ranging from jet fuel to diesel gasoline.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081122/ap_on_bi_ge/obama_economy_12;_ylt=Anucx2RdHWzyzTRuGeA1tl0Gw_IE

* November 24, 2008 The US Air Force concluded analysis of the effects of using a natural gas-based synthetic fuel with its Lockheed Martin F-22, as work to trial the technology accelerates through its trainer, transport and fighter fleets. The office of the assistant secretary of the air force for installations, environment and logistics is expected to select a private partner during December to develop a Fischer-Tropsch production facility at Malmstrom AFB, Montana.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/11/24/319113/us-air-force-completes-f-22-synthetic-fuel-trials.html

________________________________________________________________________________
As of Friday, November 21, 2008 for an Aggressive short-term trade we like Rentech at these current levels. Rentech will release 2008 financial statements in the middle of December and rumor has it these numbers will be very positive.

Rentech’s stock price had been down significantly along with everyone else:
15 days down –43%
45 days down –62%
65 days down –79%

The last time Rentech hit .46 cents a share was October 27, 2008 and the stock proceeded to rally .43 cents to .87 cents. An 89 percent increase in 7 days. Since March of this year a 40 to 80 percent fluctuation in price has been common and we look for this type of volatility to continue. Rentech could easily exceed a $1.20 per share before year-end based on a number of reasons.

Rentech’s management is currently in a pickle. The stock has dropped significantly and the officers of the company need results ASAP if they want to be able to justify their year-end bonuses. In addition, all stock options are underwater including those belonging to the board of directors. As we have seen in the past, Rentech actively manages their stock price by issuing press reports before releasing their latest financial numbers. Only to be followed with additional press releases over the coming weeks, all in an attempt to influence the stock price. One news release could easily move Rentech’s stock price .50-.60 cents like it has done so many times in the past. Two or more press releases could be very significant.

Press releases for Rentech's alternative energy segment could focus on:
* Technology licensing partnerships = Revenue increase
* Revenue and cost sharing relationships = Revenue increase and cost decrease
* New business strategies and directions = Shareholder assurance
* New product sales revenue generated by their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- leading the way to future business opportunities as companies discover value in Rentech’s numerous gas to liquid products = Revenue increase and shareholder assurance
* Continued process improvements at their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- facility in Commerce City, CO = Shareholder assurance

Rentech’s fertilizer plant, Rentech Energy Midwest Corporation -REMC- located in Dubuque IL, is an extremely valuable asset that generates a tremendous amount of cash. The value of this plant alone creates a support at current levels helping to reduce downside risk. Rentech currently has 166 million shares outstanding and their fertilizer plant alone is valued between 120-210 million. A quick back of the envelope calculation, 122/166 and 210/166, suggests a stock price between .73 to $1.27.

Rentech recently reaffirmed EBITDA guidance for their fertilizer plant and there’s a good chance Rentech will post a net income, something they haven’t done in years. Moving from a net loss to a net income would be a significant event and I think the street HAS NOT priced this into the stock. Last quarter Rentech successfully completed their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- that converts natural gas into various petroleum based products like jet fuel and diesel gasoline. The completion of the PDU means a reduction in expenses. Combine reduced expenses with record fertilizer sales revenue, coming from greater demand for corn that is used in the production of ethanol based fuels, could translate to a positive earnings per share. Management needs a homerun if they want to justify year-end bonuses; there’s an incentive for them to be aggressive. Shareholders are less likely to be pissed off when they hear about seven figure total compensation packages when the stock is trading at $3.15 versus .50 cents a share. Again, management has a strong incentive to move this stock and all stock options are currently underwater.

Press releases for Rentech's fertilizer segment could focus on:
* Record fertilizer sales revenue growth for fiscal year 2008
* Very favorable EBITDA guidance for 2009
* Favorable asset valuation discussion of their fertilizer plant

As reported at Mutual Fund Facts About Individual Stocks -MFFAIS- the overall number of institutional owners has recently increased 20 percent from 81 to its current level of 97. This is very positive.
Institutions adding to an already existing position include:
Goldman Sachs added 825,221 shares
Vanguard Group added 5,662,885 shares
Barclays Global Investors added 1,918,971 shares
Credit Suisse added shares
Putnam added shares
Oppenheimer added shares
Northern Trust added shares
Bank of New York Mellon added shares
Bank of America added shares
Wells Fargo added shares

There’s a large short position, I believe 8-9 million shares and it’s probably a safe assumption that these sellers are in the money since Rentech is currently near 52-week lows. If Rentech’s stock price does move quickly, press releases and an overall market rally, we could see short sellers add to the buying as they lock in profits. This 1-2 combo could move Rentech’s stock price in excess of .40 cents a share.

Because of a crisis in confidence the major indices, DJIA and S&P 500, have seen a record setting retreat in the last 30 days, especially in the last 7, and the market is due for a 1,200-point rally. This alone could move Rentech’s stock price .30 cents a share.

November 25, 2008 at 2:48 AM  
Blogger doctoralpha said...

Rentech (RTK) Up 22 Percent and Ready to Breakout.

Company: Rentech

Ticker: RTK

Company Snapshot: Rentech is composed of two business segments each focusing on a major global issue, alternative green energy and fertilizer production. Rentech’s alternative energy segment is one of the world's leading synthetic fuels technology and development companies. Over the last twenty-five years, Rentech has developed and patented the Rentech Process, an advanced version of the well-established Fischer-Tropsch process. The Rentech Process can convert a wide array of carbon-bearing materials, including green resources such as biomass and municipal solid waste, into ultra clean fuels and chemicals ranging from jet fuel to diesel gasoline. Rentech’s objective is to help the world reduce its dependency on oil and lower emissions, including greenhouse gases. Rentech’s second business segment is their fertilizer plant Rentech Energy Midwest Corp. -REMC-, located in East Dubuque, IL. REMC is one of the country’s largest nitrogen manufacturers producing nitrogen-based fertilizer products and industrial nitrogen products.

Recommendation: Buy

Recommendation Date: Friday, November 21, 2008 at .50 cents per share

Recommendation Results:
** Friday, November 21, 2008: UP 8.00%
** Monday, November 24, 2008: UP 12.96%
** Since Date of Recommendation: UP 22.00%

________________________________________________________________________________
On Friday, November 21, 2008 we recommended Rentech (Ticker: RTK) with a buy rating at .50 cents a shares. Since then a few positive and significant developments have taken place.

* November 22, 2008 President-elect Barack Obama reaffirmed his support for alternative energy. This includes Rentech’s Fischer-Tropsch technology that converts biomass, natural gas, and coal into liquid fuels ranging from jet fuel to diesel gasoline.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081122/ap_on_bi_ge/obama_economy_12;_ylt=Anucx2RdHWzyzTRuGeA1tl0Gw_IE

* November 24, 2008 The US Air Force concluded analysis of the effects of using a natural gas-based synthetic fuel with its Lockheed Martin F-22, as work to trial the technology accelerates through its trainer, transport and fighter fleets. The office of the assistant secretary of the air force for installations, environment and logistics is expected to select a private partner during December to develop a Fischer-Tropsch production facility at Malmstrom AFB, Montana.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/11/24/319113/us-air-force-completes-f-22-synthetic-fuel-trials.html

________________________________________________________________________________
As of Friday, November 21, 2008 for an Aggressive short-term trade we like Rentech at these current levels. Rentech will release 2008 financial statements in the middle of December and rumor has it these numbers will be very positive.

Rentech’s stock price had been down significantly along with everyone else:
15 days down –43%
45 days down –62%
65 days down –79%

The last time Rentech hit .46 cents a share was October 27, 2008 and the stock proceeded to rally .43 cents to .87 cents. An 89 percent increase in 7 days. Since March of this year a 40 to 80 percent fluctuation in price has been common and we look for this type of volatility to continue. Rentech could easily exceed a $1.20 per share before year-end based on a number of reasons.

Rentech’s management is currently in a pickle. The stock has dropped significantly and the officers of the company need results ASAP if they want to be able to justify their year-end bonuses. In addition, all stock options are underwater including those belonging to the board of directors. As we have seen in the past, Rentech actively manages their stock price by issuing press reports before releasing their latest financial numbers. Only to be followed with additional press releases over the coming weeks, all in an attempt to influence the stock price. One news release could easily move Rentech’s stock price .50-.60 cents like it has done so many times in the past. Two or more press releases could be very significant.

Press releases for Rentech's alternative energy segment could focus on:
* Technology licensing partnerships = Revenue increase
* Revenue and cost sharing relationships = Revenue increase and cost decrease
* New business strategies and directions = Shareholder assurance
* New product sales revenue generated by their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- leading the way to future business opportunities as companies discover value in Rentech’s numerous gas to liquid products = Revenue increase and shareholder assurance
* Continued process improvements at their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- facility in Commerce City, CO = Shareholder assurance

Rentech’s fertilizer plant, Rentech Energy Midwest Corporation -REMC- located in Dubuque IL, is an extremely valuable asset that generates a tremendous amount of cash. The value of this plant alone creates a support at current levels helping to reduce downside risk. Rentech currently has 166 million shares outstanding and their fertilizer plant alone is valued between 120-210 million. A quick back of the envelope calculation, 122/166 and 210/166, suggests a stock price between .73 to $1.27.

Rentech recently reaffirmed EBITDA guidance for their fertilizer plant and there’s a good chance Rentech will post a net income, something they haven’t done in years. Moving from a net loss to a net income would be a significant event and I think the street HAS NOT priced this into the stock. Last quarter Rentech successfully completed their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- that converts natural gas into various petroleum based products like jet fuel and diesel gasoline. The completion of the PDU means a reduction in expenses. Combine reduced expenses with record fertilizer sales revenue, coming from greater demand for corn that is used in the production of ethanol based fuels, could translate to a positive earnings per share. Management needs a homerun if they want to justify year-end bonuses; there’s an incentive for them to be aggressive. Shareholders are less likely to be pissed off when they hear about seven figure total compensation packages when the stock is trading at $3.15 versus .50 cents a share. Again, management has a strong incentive to move this stock and all stock options are currently underwater.

Press releases for Rentech's fertilizer segment could focus on:
* Record fertilizer sales revenue growth for fiscal year 2008
* Very favorable EBITDA guidance for 2009
* Favorable asset valuation discussion of their fertilizer plant

As reported at Mutual Fund Facts About Individual Stocks -MFFAIS- the overall number of institutional owners has recently increased 20 percent from 81 to its current level of 97. This is very positive.
Institutions adding to an already existing position include:
Goldman Sachs added 825,221 shares
Vanguard Group added 5,662,885 shares
Barclays Global Investors added 1,918,971 shares
Credit Suisse added shares
Putnam added shares
Oppenheimer added shares
Northern Trust added shares
Bank of New York Mellon added shares
Bank of America added shares
Wells Fargo added shares

There’s a large short position, I believe 8-9 million shares and it’s probably a safe assumption that these sellers are in the money since Rentech is currently near 52-week lows. If Rentech’s stock price does move quickly, press releases and an overall market rally, we could see short sellers add to the buying as they lock in profits. This 1-2 combo could move Rentech’s stock price in excess of .40 cents a share.

Because of a crisis in confidence the major indices, DJIA and S&P 500, have seen a record setting retreat in the last 30 days, especially in the last 7, and the market is due for a 1,200-point rally. This alone could move Rentech’s stock price .30 cents a share.

November 25, 2008 at 2:50 AM  
Blogger doctoralpha said...

Rentech (RTK) Up 22 Percent and Ready to Breakout.

Company: Rentech

Ticker: RTK

Company Snapshot: Rentech is composed of two business segments each focusing on a major global issue, alternative green energy and fertilizer production. Rentech’s alternative energy segment is one of the world's leading synthetic fuels technology and development companies. Over the last twenty-five years, Rentech has developed and patented the Rentech Process, an advanced version of the well-established Fischer-Tropsch process. The Rentech Process can convert a wide array of carbon-bearing materials, including green resources such as biomass and municipal solid waste, into ultra clean fuels and chemicals ranging from jet fuel to diesel gasoline. Rentech’s objective is to help the world reduce its dependency on oil and lower emissions, including greenhouse gases. Rentech’s second business segment is their fertilizer plant Rentech Energy Midwest Corp. -REMC-, located in East Dubuque, IL. REMC is one of the country’s largest nitrogen manufacturers producing nitrogen-based fertilizer products and industrial nitrogen products.

Recommendation: Buy

Recommendation Date: Friday, November 21, 2008 at .50 cents per share

Recommendation Results:
** Friday, November 21, 2008: UP 8.00%
** Monday, November 24, 2008: UP 12.96%
** Since Date of Recommendation: UP 22.00%

________________________________________________________________________________
On Friday, November 21, 2008 we recommended Rentech (Ticker: RTK) with a buy rating at .50 cents a shares. Since then a few positive and significant developments have taken place.

* November 22, 2008 President-elect Barack Obama reaffirmed his support for alternative energy. This includes Rentech’s Fischer-Tropsch technology that converts biomass, natural gas, and coal into liquid fuels ranging from jet fuel to diesel gasoline.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081122/ap_on_bi_ge/obama_economy_12;_ylt=Anucx2RdHWzyzTRuGeA1tl0Gw_IE

* November 24, 2008 The US Air Force concluded analysis of the effects of using a natural gas-based synthetic fuel with its Lockheed Martin F-22, as work to trial the technology accelerates through its trainer, transport and fighter fleets. The office of the assistant secretary of the air force for installations, environment and logistics is expected to select a private partner during December to develop a Fischer-Tropsch production facility at Malmstrom AFB, Montana.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/11/24/319113/us-air-force-completes-f-22-synthetic-fuel-trials.html

________________________________________________________________________________
As of Friday, November 21, 2008 for an Aggressive short-term trade we like Rentech at these current levels. Rentech will release 2008 financial statements in the middle of December and rumor has it these numbers will be very positive.

Rentech’s stock price had been down significantly along with everyone else:
15 days down –43%
45 days down –62%
65 days down –79%

The last time Rentech hit .46 cents a share was October 27, 2008 and the stock proceeded to rally .43 cents to .87 cents. An 89 percent increase in 7 days. Since March of this year a 40 to 80 percent fluctuation in price has been common and we look for this type of volatility to continue. Rentech could easily exceed a $1.20 per share before year-end based on a number of reasons.

Rentech’s management is currently in a pickle. The stock has dropped significantly and the officers of the company need results ASAP if they want to be able to justify their year-end bonuses. In addition, all stock options are underwater including those belonging to the board of directors. As we have seen in the past, Rentech actively manages their stock price by issuing press reports before releasing their latest financial numbers. Only to be followed with additional press releases over the coming weeks, all in an attempt to influence the stock price. One news release could easily move Rentech’s stock price .50-.60 cents like it has done so many times in the past. Two or more press releases could be very significant.

Press releases for Rentech's alternative energy segment could focus on:
* Technology licensing partnerships = Revenue increase
* Revenue and cost sharing relationships = Revenue increase and cost decrease
* New business strategies and directions = Shareholder assurance
* New product sales revenue generated by their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- leading the way to future business opportunities as companies discover value in Rentech’s numerous gas to liquid products = Revenue increase and shareholder assurance
* Continued process improvements at their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- facility in Commerce City, CO = Shareholder assurance

Rentech’s fertilizer plant, Rentech Energy Midwest Corporation -REMC- located in Dubuque IL, is an extremely valuable asset that generates a tremendous amount of cash. The value of this plant alone creates a support at current levels helping to reduce downside risk. Rentech currently has 166 million shares outstanding and their fertilizer plant alone is valued between 120-210 million. A quick back of the envelope calculation, 122/166 and 210/166, suggests a stock price between .73 to $1.27.

Rentech recently reaffirmed EBITDA guidance for their fertilizer plant and there’s a good chance Rentech will post a net income, something they haven’t done in years. Moving from a net loss to a net income would be a significant event and I think the street HAS NOT priced this into the stock. Last quarter Rentech successfully completed their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- that converts natural gas into various petroleum based products like jet fuel and diesel gasoline. The completion of the PDU means a reduction in expenses. Combine reduced expenses with record fertilizer sales revenue, coming from greater demand for corn that is used in the production of ethanol based fuels, could translate to a positive earnings per share. Management needs a homerun if they want to justify year-end bonuses; there’s an incentive for them to be aggressive. Shareholders are less likely to be pissed off when they hear about seven figure total compensation packages when the stock is trading at $3.15 versus .50 cents a share. Again, management has a strong incentive to move this stock and all stock options are currently underwater.

Press releases for Rentech's fertilizer segment could focus on:
* Record fertilizer sales revenue growth for fiscal year 2008
* Very favorable EBITDA guidance for 2009
* Favorable asset valuation discussion of their fertilizer plant

As reported at Mutual Fund Facts About Individual Stocks -MFFAIS- the overall number of institutional owners has recently increased 20 percent from 81 to its current level of 97. This is very positive.
Institutions adding to an already existing position include:
Goldman Sachs added 825,221 shares
Vanguard Group added 5,662,885 shares
Barclays Global Investors added 1,918,971 shares
Credit Suisse added shares
Putnam added shares
Oppenheimer added shares
Northern Trust added shares
Bank of New York Mellon added shares
Bank of America added shares
Wells Fargo added shares

There’s a large short position, I believe 8-9 million shares and it’s probably a safe assumption that these sellers are in the money since Rentech is currently near 52-week lows. If Rentech’s stock price does move quickly, press releases and an overall market rally, we could see short sellers add to the buying as they lock in profits. This 1-2 combo could move Rentech’s stock price in excess of .40 cents a share.

Because of a crisis in confidence the major indices, DJIA and S&P 500, have seen a record setting retreat in the last 30 days, especially in the last 7, and the market is due for a 1,200-point rally. This alone could move Rentech’s stock price .30 cents a share.

November 25, 2008 at 2:50 AM  

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