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Tuesday, November 4, 2008

stock price prediction (tomorrow's stock price): QQQQ, NDX, NQ, SPY, DIA trading

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As we wrote the last time we made a call on this blog (read previous posts), the appropriate price to short this market was in the area of NDX 1375 to NDX 1380 area for nasdaq 100 (qqqq, NDX, NQ).

That level has been reached. As we write this note, NDX is at 1371. We have entered only a half size position so far (in area of 1380).

The second half is not filled as it is placed in the area of 1385.

If the market a first sells off, it may bounce to the area of the top once it reaches the area of 1360 to 1365.

If it does not bounce after a first selloff, then we have missed entering the whole position size in the area of the top.

2:30PM: the market is now at 1373.ish coming up from the short lived selloff, we wrote about above. If we did not have half size short position already in, we would start entering at this level. The reason is that the "right hook" the sellers gave the buyers was at NDX 1377. Like a boxing, a well delivered right hook can send the opponent down, he may stand up again, howeever one can reasonable be confident to go against the man who went down as one gets closer to the area of the "right hook".

3:41PM: third chance to start shorting NDX. It is back to 1373 (where it was at 2:30PM). Those who just come to read the blog, you now have the third warning.


3:49PM: with NDX at 1379. We have entered the second half size of the position (which we were thinking to put in at 1385. We have moved it down 6 NDX points).

Now we close the screen, and let the market do its work which should be down in the next hours of trading.


PROFIT TAKING:

Today is Wednesday. The market has gapped down. Let us take some profits.

12:16PM (Wednesday November 5, 2008): with NDX at 1332, we are taking half the position off. Since entry was at 1380 area, profits are about 48 NDX points.

2:10PM (Wednesday November 5, 2008): with NDX at 1320, we took the second part off.
Profit for this part are around 60 NDX points.

Overall profits are around 55 NDX points.

Done for today unless it bounces up, and we are re-enter. If we do, it would be with half size only. Time is now about 2:13PM.


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Happy trading,

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

nice blog!
what happened to the short position from oct-31 (short @1340)? when will it be closed? thank you!

November 4, 2008 at 9:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are the man! I just bought back the qqqq after reading your call of moments ago. Sold QQQQs short at $33.87, bought them back at 32.67!

I have never made such as pro like trade in my life. thanks very much indeed. I do not know how to say thanks, but keep it up man!

November 5, 2008 at 12:51 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are spamming at CalculatedRisk. Unless you stop, I will report it. Simple as pie!

November 5, 2008 at 1:20 PM  

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