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Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Bond Market Top December 2008 (TLT top, TBT bottom)

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(READ ALERT AT END OF THIS POST. TIME IS 1:10PM)
We were looking at the bond market which has been in a ferocious bull move recently. We have not completed our analysis yet, but from our preliminary analysis, we are likely at a top on the bond market. That is what the title: Bond Market Top December 2008 (TLT top, TBT bottom).

There are multiple ways you can play a top in bond market:

1. Shorting TLT EFT.
2. Buying an inverse bond ETF. TBT eft is such a fund. It appreciates when prices of bonds fall (which is equivalent to saying the bond yield's rising).
3. Buying puts on TLT (but we looked at the options, and the bid-ask spread are wide, despite a good open interest. Market markets play games sometimes till rules change and force them to have a smaller minimum spread such as what happened in the penny pilot program for options on some equities such as QQQQ, and other stocks.
4. Selling calls on TLT.

To be continued!

ALERT: December 05, 2008 at 1:ishPM. LTL is getting close to 113, which tis he area of the top generated by our analysis. The time of the top has come. We are going short LTL (selling ITM calls).

We would expect commodity-related stocks (such as XLE) to rise.

To your profits


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