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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

qqqq dia spy trading and stock price prediction (december 10, 2008)

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qqqq dia spy trading and stock price prediction (december 10, 2008)

(ALTERT: THURSDAY 11, 2008: Red Thurday took place. NDX is now at 1178. It is time to cover short position on NDX. Time is about 3:15PM)

(NOTE: If any reader here is a lawyer please contact us if we can discuss a 401K retirement account in which we are warned that if we were to take a 15% profits position off today, they will put an excessive trading policy on us for one year. The excessive policy allows only 1 day exchange for an entire quarter. This is outrageous. We have deciced not to close the retirement position despite our analysis telling us that we should take at least half the position off! We are very angry at these policies which we consider deeply unfair. We believe they are more meant to trap capital, and has little to do with the "high morals" put in front to defend such stupid policies. The ultimate goal of a fund investor is to make money. We have kept a copy of the warning in case it is useful).

We tried entering the market on short side at 11:33AM. We were not filled. Now we are filled on restest of high.

11:46AM: with NDX at 1232, one quarter of normal size is established. Direction: short side of market (selling call options on the QQQQ ETF)

To give you a head up on things. THe next entry is planned at around NDX 1248 to NDX 1250. Market is now at NDX 1235 at 12:15PM.

Profit Taking:

2:02PM: with NDX at 1208 we took off half of the position off. Profits 24NDX points.

Selling Short Again:

3:15PM: with NDX at 1221, we are putting back what we took off at 2:02PM.

As we type this NDX is now at 1215 (so 6NDX points profit in the latest entry).

NDX level of 1224 is an important one for today. If the bulls do not win that level today (and I do not expect them to), the odds of a red thursday are greater.

We are leaving the position until tomorrow. It is profitable, and in case of a gap down tomorrow, it will make money. If market goes up tomorrow, we can face it with the rest of position size we did not establish today on short side.

Execution Reports:

We will share execution reports later today. You should be able to read the
execution of the trade and compare them to the time line in this post.

Retirement Account:

We are heading now to close the position in retirement account in which
we went long Fidelity Select Energy. If market holds today until close,
we should have a 14% gain on that position. Details will come later.

By everyone, and do not forget to enroll to the blog. Information is down at the bottom of this post. Just scroll down. To your profits!

Below are transcript of Yesterday's session for those who are new to this site or those who did not follow it yesterday

tomorrow and today stock price prediction (qqqq, spy, dia, ndx, nq, spx, djx trading, December 9, 2008)

We could not follow the market in the morning except closing the overnight trade at open which lead to around 20 NDX points. The trade was short NDX at close yesterday at 1225.

Today is Tuesday. A summary of the results of trading for each day during the last seven days are:

Tuesday (of last week): 78NDX points
Wednesday:75NDX points
Thursday: off day (thanksgiving)
Friday: 78NDX points
Monday (yesterday): 34N DXpoints
Tuesday (today): so far (as of 12:30PM) 20 NDX points.

We are now in afternoon session. Let us start.

12:42PM: with NDX at around 1242, we are scaling in a quarter size position. direction short QQQQ options calls (which is short QQQQ, nasdaq-100).

1:05P: the market rolled down immediately after visiting the entry price of 12:42PM. A great entry. No draw down. NDX is now at 1228. Position is showing 14NDX points so far.

Profit taking

1:17PM: with NDX at 1223, we took the position off. Profits: 19NDX points. Today's current profits: 39NDX points.

2:32PM: NDx at 1204. This is a risky trade. We are scaling on LON side of NDX. Details later. Size 1/8 or 1/4 depending on filling of normal trade size. We have other matters to attend to. We would not be able to report on the progress, but NDX should revisit 1210 area. The farthest we will take profits is if NDX were to go to 1220 to 1225 area. One should reverse at that point, as market should close below 1225.

2:42PM: With NDX at 1212 Profits taken on LONG position. 8NDX points profit.

We were NOT patient to wait for profits today! Read what we posted on 2:32PM. The outcome was exactly what we thought it would do.

2:58PM: with NDX at 1222, scaling on short side. Entry is complete, and we were luck to get entry at a bit higher than 1222, when NDX spiked to 1226. We get entry somewhere in between, let us say 1224. It should end at 1225 or below if our analysis is right.

We may not be able to post before the close. NDX is now at 1218. 6NDX profits so far, but we plan to possible take profits on a visit at around 1213.

3:29PM: with NDX at 1213, we are taking the profits. Another 11NDX points.

Tally for today: 58NDX points.

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Happy trading,


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