NDX Trading QQQQ Trading Nq Trading June 2008 ( stock market, stock trading, a summary)

Stock traders, stock market investors, option trading and forex trading traders:

I thought to summarize the calls made by this blog which nailed the daily tops and bottoms in NDX trading (Nasda-100 trading, QQQQ trading )for June 2008 (july 2008) (and for the stock market as a whole because indices move in packs (they max at the same time and bottom at the same time)).

For those not familiar with chart reading, each bar represent a day of trading. The top of the bar is the high price, and the borrow of the day is the low price of the day. The dash to the left and to the right of each bear represent the open and the close price of that day.

You will see two types (red and green) of arrows on the chart. Each arrow represents a signal to go short or long at the area of the top or bottom of that bar. The red arrows is a go short signal made at the top of the bar, and the green arrow is a go long signal at the bottom of the bar.

These calls have been made live on this blog, and you can visit the blog previous posts and archive to -re-read those calls.

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Now that we have hindsight, the attached chart shows calls for NDX trading over the last 4 weeks made by this blog.

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Stock trading, stock market, NDX trading, Financial EFT, XLF, July 3, 2008

Some observations:

1. Today Thursday is an abbreviated session. The bond market is scheduled at 2:00PM, and Stock markets at 1 p.m.

2. Euro interest rate has been increased.

My forecast:


1. Let us first start with EUR/USD: As I wrote before this pair is headed for a fall. Now that Trichet increased his rates which has been his repeated threat, raised it just a little, he showed his hand. Selling of this pair would come in force because they know EUR's rate will not be raised soon and they know that euro central bank takes a long time to change interest rates.

Conclusion: my prediction of earlier this week that this pair would head down still remains.

2. If EUR/USD retreats which means dollar up, I would expect oil to pull down, and with it reduction in volality in stock market with a slightly up bias.

What I plan to do:

1. EUR/USD: I am trading it on short side. This is where the main action is in trading today.

2. Stock market: If the bottom of yesterday is taken shortly after the open, I expect price to head up shortly thereafter.
My main play in stock market is planned to however be mainly to sell a straddle or a strangle with strikes close to the money, as volatility would fall and also we have the long weekend coming so theta will be working on my behalf.


9:45AM: with NDX at 1812 we are in area of today's morning bottom or close to it.


9:49AM: We are at this morning bottom, with NDX at 1807. I am going long side

10:02AM: My order just got filled on the retest of 1807. They did not fill me in on the first time it was there.

10:07AM: I did not like that it cut the 1807 bottom, but at least I am in. I sold ITM puts.

Selling ITM puts allows me to earn three ways:
1. NDX rises
2. NDX stays where it is
3. NDX moves down but not too much.

Reason for the above is that by selling an ITM put, I am selling premium, and buying underlying synthetically.

I also want to add that I am trading at reduced size (less than half normal size). Why? we are against a daily trend, and also it is a half day. Less time means, less upside, which means we should trade small (if this smaller size is counter-intuitive to you like I used to, it means you need to learn more).

10:16AM: NDX at 1811. We are in the green. And with it, I am about to get to other things.

10:30AM: NDX at 1828. 21 NDX points profit. I neutralized the intrinstic value of the put, by selling a call. This means that I am now short a (gut) strangle, which is better than a strangle because I have more cash in my account and the premium you earn from either is the same.

That is it for me for today in equities unless something really different happens.
If we revisit the lows soon, I might take off the short call if I am at my screen.

If you can excuse me for 3 to 4 points from the bottom of today (which I am happy it took place as otherwise my order would have not been filled, the series of top nailing and bottom picking continues.

Live from the blog on the net that nails tops and bottoms. This blog is to trading what: Michael Jordan is to Basketball, Gretzky to hokey, the great hitter of all time to baseball, Zidane to soccer, etc...

10:40AM: with NDX at 1832. If I were still in a position and were to trade it by buying the underlying, I would take my profits now. 27 NDX points. I am done with equties. Happy 4th for americans, and happy rest of week for all the citizen of the world.

UPDATE: 2:14PM I had 7 open trades in EUR/USD. Profits were from 120ish pips to 50ish pips. I just took profits, but left a little position. I plan to re-enter if it goes up to retest.

A summary is coming with a copy of trade execution reports and eur/usd trading screens, but I am having problems with google to upload them.

I am also looking at some specials I came across on the internet that I would post.

God bless America! (4th of July is in my head)

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Best regards and happy trading,

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stock trading, stock market, NDX trading, Dow trading, XLF trading, July 2008,

It is official. This blog done it again. The streak of top and bottom nailing continues. It nailed the top of today at 10:48AM, after nailing the bottom just yesterday at 12:40PM. Therefore here is what one would have done following the calls on this blog:

A. From bottom of yesterday to top of today (for DOW): 234 points.
B. From top of today to where the dow currently stands: 210 points.
C. Tally: 444 point profits in just around 10 hours of trading
(I like this number. A series of 4).

3:42PM: I am closing my short positions.

3:49PM: I am done.

XLF is now trading at 20.07 down from around 0.60 from the area of the top.

Dow is now at 11222, which means profits of 210 points from the top called here on this blog.

NDX is now at 1818, which means profits of around 50 NDX points.

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My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.

Best regards and happy trading,

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Stock trading, stock market, XLF trading, NDX, trading, July 2, 2008

10:17 AM with XLF at 20.64, I shorted it to hedge ("take profit") on my position in the retirement account.

earlier today when NDX was at 1873, I tried to enter a short position, but they did not fill my order. I was selling short calls on the QQQQ (bearish), at the ask price and the folks at known exchange (I do not want write names here) are well known to play games. I hope there will be a restest of that level this morning for me to get in. I was watching the national best bid offer (NBBO) price. It reached my price, but they did not fill me.

ALERT: 10:48AM with DOW at 11432. I would take my profit if I did not earlier when dow first reached that level. Retreat is possible and is imminent.

At around 11AM with NDX around 1866, I could not take it anymore so I went in as I felt that the earlier high may not be restested this morning.

11:06AM: NDX is now at 1856. My decision to enter is then good. Already 10 up 10 NDX points.

11:09AM: Dow is at 11385. That is close to 50 points profit to those who may have followed the alert in this post. The alert above have so far called the top of the morning.


11:35AM: with NDX at 1846.50, I took half of my position off with around 20 NDX points profit.

Now I am going to do some other matter, and will come back later.

Dow traders: DOW is now at 11346. You have now clos to 90 points profit. Some strong buyers are showing up. My intelligence unit reported seeing them at mile 11330, and they are moving up north. Understand that they do not hit you in the back if you are short. I would manage my position by taking some profits off the table.


11:54AM: with XLF at $20.29, I just took off half of my profits on the short XLF position. Profits are $0.35.

ALERT: Dow is at 11330. You know have 103 dow points in a little over an hour. Bulls are around you. Be careful.

UPDATE: It is official. This blog nailed live both the top and the bottom of this morning. As I wrote about the bulls were indeed at 11330 area.

I am late for this other thing. I will blog later.

(addition by member of the management of the blog is below (blogger plans to blog later)

Enrollment:

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My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.

Best regards and happy trading,

PS: Send your enrollement email to:

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Stock trading, Stock Market, NDX trading, QQQQ trading, Nq trading, July 1, 2008 (Update summary)

Stock traders, investors, market followers and all traders,

(Notes:
1. There was a test this evening, and this blog was open to invitees only for around 75 minutes. Sorry for any inconvenience.
2. I have a private room that already filled. People were added on first come first serve basis. Google blogs have a capacity.
3. I have a list of around 100 people whom they sent us their request but we could not accomodate in that room. We are adding them to two new private rooms. You will receive an invitation email as soon as they are set up. Please be patient. We will add you soon. Same information will be posted to all private rooms.
4. We are also working on setting up a private blog outside of google blogs with no maximum. We have never done this before, so we am learning as we are working on it.

5. READ UPDATES AT END OF POST with regard to REAL TIME CALL for EUR/USD

)

Here is a summary of what I did today in the stock market (I reported on the currencies previously):

1. NDX trading (Nasdaq-100 trading, QQQQ trading) : At 12:40PM, I determined that we were at a bottom of the day. I then went long, but covering the calls I sold yesterday (at a profit because calls lose value when price goes down and since I shorted them I bought them at a low price than I sold them for). My position after than moment became a short ITM put which profits when stock rises. I am now trying to upload a copy of my execution report, but for a reason the google blogging system keeps telling me that it could upload the image and ask me to send and an email to then. I might post it somewhere and provide a link later this evening

It turned out that was the area of the bottom or even the absolute bottom of the day.

2. You recall that I wrote yesterday that a short term rebound in XLF was imminent, and that if it gaps down I will add to the position of yesterday. It did gap down (but I was not at my screen until a little after 9:30AM and I could not catch it at the bottom. It was running as if someone was chasing it!).

What I did is what I wrote about in real-time in previous post: a little after 10AM I shorted XLF in my brokerage account. The fact that the retirement trade only by the hour is part of the reason I did what I dit, but there are some reasons that you may want to know about on how to profit by combining retirement accounts and brokerage accounts.

I will write a note on this, and would share it with the subscribers (If you did not subscribe yet, you better hurry). These reasons are closely held "secrets" on how to adopt a holystic approach to trading combining the strengths and weaknesses of retirement and non-retirement accounts, in conjuction with tax saving strategies and arbitrage. It would be too long to dwell on this here.

I shorted XLF at 20.36 around 10AM, and covered it when it was at back to 19.85, for a profit of .51 or 2.5%.

The position I started yesterday was in Fidelity Select Banking. I got the price of 4PM yesterday. With todays close it is up by 1.39%.

Therefore the overall result for XLF is close to 4% profit in just 6.5 hours of trading. I cannot complain, even if I feel I could have done much better, but buying the gap down, and possible later reload when it came back down.

I did not load more when it came back down towads the end of morning, as this was not consistent with original plans which was to add to it only at gap down because these gaps close with almost 100% certainty for the regime of price in which XLF was yesterday. There are gaps that do not close the same day but they are in a different context (which I call a regime). This is also hard to explain here. Those who know how gaps behave (and why) can make great money trading these gaps, but they occur less frequently. These gap techniques work mainly for indices (I would not extend things to single stocks, as this would be wrong and could lead to disasters).

I will analyze price and post elements from my analysis in the next post

I want to say that I was feeling bad for the general public as they would typically follow headline and jump out when it is too late, based only on financial press.

A well visited place was arguing yesterday for average Joe and retirees to short by buying index funds, and today in the morning made the big headline of "Bear market now". We have been in a bear market since last Fall!

What do you think typically Joe did: sold to stop the pain of losing, and probably even thing it would be intelligent to buy inverse funds and started loaded.

That typical average Joe must have now loss twice: on the way down, and now muts have exited when s/he realized that even shorting leads to losses (and fast).

Most likely such person who then take losses on the short position, and may even say to himself herself that s/he was right to be long the stocks. Then when they will get long again, the market would go down, then the cycle of agony continues.

Remember this friends: financial press are like the commentator of a TV sports game. S/he report the action, and does not predict the future action. What is worse they seem to make a prediction, but they get wrong.

I know that I would be hated to write what I wrote, but it is a fact.

I was also to re-iterate my point that financial markets are the opposite of a democracy. If a democracy the majority select those who govern. In a stock market the minority profits, and the majority pays for the profits.

If you have read about information theory and maximum entropy, you would know that in a system with N elements, N/5 determine the 4/5 of the information. It is the same for the stock market and any free market.

Take care, and I am now concluding with the call I made in the previous post/posts.

ADDITIONS/ UPDATES (LIVE):

10:02PM: I started re-entering short side of EUR/USD. I am scaling in EUR/USD short side. First entry at 10:02PM, selling in are of 1.5812.


CALL:

I urge you to send me an email to add your name on the list of a by invitation only blog, and also in my list of people to who I am writing to share "secrets".

My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.

Best regards and happy trading,

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Experiment of Timing Tops and Bottoms (Even at the one minute level )

Dear readers,

(Tuesday July 1. I did not like the gap down. I am going to see what the market will do and reassess from there. With the gap now closed, and with XLF in 20.36 area, I am taking this off with a small profit. Since my retirement account trades on the hour, I decided to hedge that in my brokerage account by selling it short at 20.36.

At 11:52AM with XLF at 19.85, I took off the short position sold at 20.36 is closed with a profit of $0.51.

Also I wrote yesterday that I will be playing short EUR/USD as a way to play a retreat in oil, and a rebound in equities. I left orders which got filled while I was sleeping. I sold short in area of 1.5815. I am including a chart containing the entry )

(The post below seems to be of interest to a majority of readers, so I thought to bump it up. Please read the other posts as well as they contain information that took place after I first posted the note below)

Please read this post carefully. It has the potential to make you wealthy. If you are a new visitor to this blog, before you consider leaving, I sincerely advise that you think multiple times before doing so. This blog may not look to you as you may have expected it too, but please do not let the looks deceive you.

Let me share with you this. In the last 2 weeks, this blog has called the top of 8 days and the bottom prices of multiple others including the bottom of today. It is in the record of this blog.

In addition, the blogger has called the precise tops and bottoms of many other days in a public forum where the cream of the cream of trader hang.

But let us discuss things that matter to you. First I want to state that the blogger is highly educated (from a formal education point of view, with higher level university degrees), and has his educational background is in the scientific and mathematically rigourous disciplines. I am not stating this to scare the reader, but I did not want to write it or project it in this blog's image precisely because I wanted all readers irrespective of their background to stay, read, learn and return to this blog.

As a matter of fact, you do not need any of technical skills that I possess to do the work I have done, in order for you to benefit from the findings (similar to the case of a driver of a car who does not need to be an automative engineer to benefit from his car).

Let me start with the end first. I started recently an experiment to ascertain whether it is humanly possible to buy bottoms and sell tops on each day using live prices of 1-minute.

Let me show you the odds of nailing the top of just one day if one were to do it based on just luck. In the forex market, which trades 24 hours, there are: 1440 (=24*60) minutes in a forex trading day. In the stock market (cash sesssion, which starts at 9:30AM Eastern US time), there are 6.5 trading hours, and therefore 390 minute of trading.

To sell at the top price of a day in the stock market using 1-minute prices, the probability of one doing it is the product of the probabilities that each one of the prices at the other minutes is less than the price at which one decides that the price corresponding to a given minute is the top price of that day. This probability is:

1. for the stock market: (0.5)^(390-1), which is 7.93E-118
2. for the forex market: (0.5)^(1440-1), which is 6.57E-434

These are tiny numbers, and are extremely small odds.

The conclusion is that if one were to try, by luck, to pick a top (or a bottom) of a day at the one minute level, his chances to be successul are extremely small.

If a man does it relying on luck, that man needs 1.26E117 days, just to get one of the days right. These are a lot of days, and would need multiple lives to make it just once.

THE EXPERIMENT:

I developed some mathematical results and went out to test whether they can help me determine the tops and bottoms of trading days at the one minute level.

I posted my results live in a public forum for multiple months. Many people were impressed, but others could not believe it, even if I were posting my market calls in real-time, and each post has a time-stamp from the forum software which I have not control over.

Some people thought I was bragging as they probably have not grasped the reason of my posting of those market calls. It was not to brag, but to conduct the experiment, and obtain comments from others on its usefulness or lack thereof.

I then decided to start this blog for various other reasons:

1. I wanted to share my findings with a larger audience.
2. I also thought that it may be of help to others to understand trading, and make money out of the market calls.
3. Document the results.
4. Build a network with people like you.

The methods I use work for all instruments that trade and which cannot be manipulated by a small group of large traders. Currencies and major indices and ETFs fall under this category. Individual stocks of small companies do not. But the methods should work for a basket of stocks (large enough in number and in size that they cannot be manipulated).

FINDING:

I am in the process of compiling a report containing the results. The results are impressive, and demonstrate that it is possible to sell tops and bottoms with a probability clearly way higher that the theoretical probability, and I was amazed myself. The results are spectacular.

EXAMPLES:

With this method I have nailed all the major recent tops such as the latest tops on NDX (QQQQ, NQ, Nasdaq 100) : 2050, 2057, and many others that I have to look at the history to recall them all. The history is in the forum (I will upload it here) and also in this blog.

Just in the past 2 week days, I have called to the minute the tops of 8 days, and the bottoms of other days, including the bottom of today on NDX which was at 1829. (Please read my previous post related to trading on June 27 (afternoon) for the nailing of the latest bottom).

HOW CAN THIS BENEFIT YOU?

It can benefit you in in many ways. I plan to share with you many things I discovered, and teach you many things I learned. I have read more than 1000 books on trading, and have developed a lot of insight in addition to my own new findings that exist no where because I developed them.

Let me also tell you that one does not even need all the precision I have tried to achieve to make money in the market. In fact the market is more foregiving than what it could do based on my theoretical results and insight.

CALL:

I urge you to send me an email to add your name on the list of a by invitation only blog, and also in my list of people to who I am writing to share "secrets".

My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.

Best regards and happy trading,

PS: Send your enrollement email to:

emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Stock trading, stock market, Forex trading: NDX trading, Nasdaq-100 Trading, June 30, 2008, XLF Trading

This is update on what I did today and the situation with after hours prices:

1. I sold strangles of options expiring today (quarterly options) on the QQQQ ETF. They did not need any defense, and close them before the close paying a little for them after selling some of them on Friday, and some during the day while the stock was waving around.

That was profitable and with any work, other then double checking from time to time, that things are staying in range which what I thought.

2. I then sold ITM july 2008 puts, and hedge them by selling OTM calls above the strike of puts. I am essentially selling volatility at higher strikes and synthetically longing the QQQQs.

This position exploits various things: a possible reduction in volatility, the passage of time, the fact that this is a short week in terms of trading ( 1.5 days then normal). In addition if market goes up, volatility would go down, and with the price heading towards my short strikes where it will be going towards neutrality with a rising theta. So it is a good position if the scenario I have in mind turns out to be right. If it is not, I have various ways to defend it.

It is also a smaller than normal size position (because we are against the daily trend even if I think that we might see a fast bull couter attack is possible), and I plan to manage it whether market is up or down depending on future outlook and future price action. In addition, I have profits from today and the previous days which allow some room to take the initiative (assume that the risk is manageable).

3. XLF: This is in retirement account. I got the confirmation from my broker. I got the price of 4:00PM, as my order came between 3;00PM and 4:00PM, and they price by the hour.

4. AFTER HOURS: QQQQ and XLF are both UP after hours. And Lehman is apparently up more than 3% in afterhours. Therefore the climate is starting to show a possible mark up in equities in the next few days.

5. If there is a markup, I expect it to be sharper in the Dow and XLF (and less sharp in the QQQQ even if the latter have historically a higher volatility).

I am also looking for NDX (in case of a rally) to try to close the gap down of last week (June 26?). NDX in the area of 1920 is where I currently project a possible stop of price rise if a price rise takes place.

Happy trading

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forex trading (currency trading) EUR/JPY , EUR/USD, June 30 , 2008 (Update)

Stock traders, investors, and currency (forex) traders,

I thought to give an update and divided it into currency trades and stock trades. This section contains the currency (forex) trades. The next one contains an update on the equities (stock) trades.

I have build a short position in EUR/JPY. Attached is a chart indicating where I entered and where it stands (up more than 200 pips so far).

A top is forming on EUR/JPY. If there is a reaction, then I would expect it to fail on re-retest of highs. I plan to put stops to lock gains, but if there is a reaction (which can happen if there a rally in equities over the next few days, and if there is not a sharp sell off in oil and eur/usd.

EUR/USD is also weakening since my discussion of it in an earlier port today.

Happy trading

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Stock trading, Stock Market, XLF short term Bottom, June 30, 3:08PM,

I have to call my retirement brokerage firm to place trade in my retirement account. So I do not have time. But, the short bottom I wrote about in XLF is around the corner. I do not have time to explain myself now, but I get to go to place my order.

This is not in a trading account, but in my retirement account. I am placing the order using the fidelity select banking fund (which trades each hour). I hope XLF will not run up, and I get a bad fill. If it does not move much, it is good for me.

Details later.

Just to confirm that I got in on long side of XLF few moments ago. I put in just a partial very small position with respect to portfolio with intent to scale in pyramid formation. This is my first buy of banks for years now. In case XLF decides to gap down tomorrow, I might pick some more. I did not want to be left out, so I was I put in a little position.

AFTER HOURS: Lehman is up 3% and XLF is up in afterhours trading. The call in this post is then the right call at the right time! I may be calling another daily top or bottom in series (let the streak continues)!

I urge you to send me an email to add your name on the list of a by invitation only blog, and also in my list of people to who I am writing to share "secrets".

My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.

Best regards and happy trading,

PS: Send your enrollement email to:

emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com