QQQQ Trading, NDX Trading, NQ Trading (Stock Market on 0.8.08.08)

11:29AM: with NDX at 1910, we are starting to scale in on short side.

EUR USD forex currency trading (EUR/USD): the dollar is back!

forex traders, and stock market traders and investors:

I forecast here in the previous article on this blog, the KING IS BACK! (The dallar is back!). In fact, the real news here is that the EUR is back to being trashed! This evening (August 7, 2008) saw EUR/USD break the magic level of 1.5300.

We have been telling here on this blog that the future (which is now the present tense) was for a weak euro, and a strong dollar and strong yen. Look at the charts of the now historical prices, and you will see the confirmation of this the prediction of this blog. Read the past posts here and you will find the predictions that we have made on this blog, and which time have shown their accuracy.

I have also attached a copy of a trade we manage to maintain on EUR/USD despite the numours temptations to take a profit. I like to see 700 pips profits on my screen, and I think you should try once in your life, and it will give you the strength to sometimes hold to your position. Big money is made in big moves (as well?).

Stock market: QQQQ trading (NDX trading, NQ Trading) August 7, 2008

Stock Market: NQ trading, QQQQ trading, NDX trading, QID trading (and option trading that follows NDX):

12:36PM: with NDX at 1898.?? I am about to start to scale in a position on short side of NDX.

By the time I typed the above, it has moved up a point or so.

12:47PM with NDX at 1900, I started my getting in on short side.

2:11PM: NDX is now at 1889. 11 points from the 1900 level.

Merrill Lynch ABS CDO (cdos) : Another large sale

Another sale of ABS CDOs (see information below). This time it is Merrill Lynch ABS CDO (cdos) sale -- Another writedown which dilutes the value of equity share holders.

From A Press Release RE Merrill Lynch:

"On July 28, 2008, Merrill Lynch agreed to sell $30.6 billion gross notional amount of U.S. super senior ABS CDOs to an affiliate of Lone Star Funds for a purchase price of $6.7 billion. At the end of the second quarter of 2008, these CDOs were carried at $11.1 billion, and in connection with this sale Merrill Lynch will record a write-down of $4.4 billion pre-tax in the third quarter of 2008.

On a pro forma basis, this sale will reduce Merrill Lynch’s aggregate U.S. super senior ABS CDO long exposures from $19.9 billion at June 27, 2008, to $8.8 billion, the majority of which comprises older vintage collateral – 2005 and earlier. The pro forma $8.8 billion super senior long exposure is hedged with an aggregate of $7.2 billion of short exposure, of which $6.0 billion are with highly-rated non-monoline counterparties, of which virtually all have strong collateral servicing agreements, and $1.1 billion are with MBIA. The remaining net exposure will be $1.6 billion. The sale will reduce Merrill Lynch’s risk-weighted assets by approximately $29 billion.

Merrill Lynch will provide financing to the purchaser for approximately 75% of the purchase price. The recourse on this loan will be limited to the assets of the purchaser. The purchaser will not own any assets other than those sold pursuant to this transaction."

NDX, QQQQ, NQ stock trading, August 06, 2008

Stock trading, stock market: NQ trading, QQQQ trading, NDX and all indices:

I just posted the following on another site:

"08-06-08 11:41 AM

1. It all technical.
2. Now that the previous day high is broken, you can try your luck on the short side.
3. With NDX now at 1879 (at 11:40AM), I would take all my profits on long side, and start playing short side if you like to pick tops."

Small Business Bankruptcies 2008

Stock investors, traders, and blog readers:

I came across an article on bloomberg that dates back to April, and reveals statistics that show real difficulties in the economy. Small business are at the heart of economic well being, and usually employment in this area not reflected in the big numbers. Therefore, statistics on such businesses reveals things we cannot see on the other statistics:

Excerpts from Bloomberg Article:

Business bankruptcy filings in the U.S. increased 49 percent in April from a year earlier, the biggest gain so far in 2008, as the slowing economy prompted more companies to shut down.

Business petitions rose to 5,173 during the month, according to statistics compiled from court records by Jupiter eSources LLC in Oklahoma City.....

``When you go into a downturn, the cyclical industries tend to get hit,'' said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. ``Any sudden downshift in growth will generate rises in these numbers.''

Dollar, Equities (stocks), and Commodities May 2008 to today August 08

Dear investors, stock traders, commodities traders, and forex (dollar) tradings, and all blog readers.

Back in May 08, Editor of this blog penned the note below. Now that we have hindsight, the vision below is a reality. The chain is breaking/changing direction exactly as forecast. Yes one can make accurate economic/market forecasts.

Your comments folks! If you know of any other person or site out there that made or came close to the accurate forecast below, let me know.

On May 07, 2008 we wrote:

"Here is what I think the message of the markets is/going to be:

1. Stock market down because of recession/earnings. Fed does not have much room to cut more.
2. Other countries will cut rates to fight spreading recession, causing interest rate differential between dollar world and non-dollar world to shrink. This is bullish for the dollar (similar to dividend increase in stocks).
3. Point 2. will lead to further strength of the dollar because of momentum in currency pairs created by dollar bulls (change of trend in favor of the dollar), and money running to safety to USA and buying of assets/bonds.
4. Points 1. to 2. will cause commodities to be less in demand, and therefore a reduction in their perceived price will follow. This will translate to weaking in futures prices, helped with a strengthning dollar. Once the down trend is established, the bears (and their aunts) will take care of the bear trend in commodities.

The first wave: dollar up, and market down. Commodities afterwards with possible sharp corrections as a beginning to disorient the bulls before the kill.

Long dollar/short foreign currencies, short US equities and international, and start shorting commodities once a top is comfirmed, etc.

"