tomorrow's stock price prediction QQQQ Trading (DIA, SPY, NDX, QID)

Today's stock price prediction QQQQ Trading (DIA, SPY, NDX, QID) November 14, 2008 (Nov 14, 2008)):

The first phase of today's trading, involves one QUARTER of regular trading size. We will trade it by selling puts ( November close to the money puts) as expiration is next week. Selling puts is a long position on the underlying. The underlying in this case is the stock market (NDX, SPY, DIA). In our case we plan to be selling puts on the QQQQs and possibly the NDX index itself.

11:42AM: with NDX at 1183, we are scaling on the long side of QQQQ (NDX).

12:01PM: NDX is back to 1183 level after it went up. So those who read the post between 11:42AM and 12:00PM you did not miss where we have started scaling in.

If you are patient, you can even start scaling in two to three points down (around 1180).

To understand the market a bit better, one has to analyze the losers. The first wave of losers of yesterday (who are the bears/sellers), he will appear as buyers to cover their short positions starting at around NDX 1177. The typical bear of yesterday has shorted the market down to 1149 (most likely in the afternoon after having missed the first down move (which was the death trap for bears).

Now the losers are praying that if the market gets down just to where they have shorted, they will cover their positions, and never try doing the same mistak again.

That is why I expect the price to bounce whenever it gets closer to 1177.

But I do not rule out the price to move even down to 1160 area. That is where I would starting scaling in my second QUARTER of my position size.

Finally, there is a chance that price can even go down to 1125 area. At that price I am geting in with a full size position (assuming that my analysis tells me we are at a bottom for today.

One should not forget that we are trading today by selling puts that are expiring next week. They are formed of premium, which is the last few days of expiring goes away like snow melting in late spring sun.

PROFTTS TAKEN:

(This was not reported in real-time as position was closed while outside of office)
At around 3:00PM, with NDX around 1233, we have taken the position off.

Profits are around 50 NDX points!

For those of you who got in after we got in, you got an extra 3 points profits
and the pleasure of nailing the absolute bottom.

Nailing a bottom is priceless. Nailing it twice in two days is ...

3:48PM: in case some of you are asking our opinion whether you should short the market, our answer is leave that opinion for Monday. This market is now on long side, until proven guilty! Take a long worryless weekend, and go spend your well
deserved gains.

Long live the blog and his readers!

Stock market bottom November 2008 price prediction

Stock market bottom November 2008 price prediction:

This post is composed of two parts: predictive and live (in sense of real money) trading

We are skipping trading for today (for now, but would turn to live trading), but we thought to make price predictions as usual, and as if we were trading real money.

12:33PM: with NDX at 1138, first sign of a bottom. Open half intended size. Direction Long NDX.

12:38PM: with NDX at 1139, add the second part of the intended size. Direction long NDX.

NOW PART OF POST WITH LIVE (live=real-money) TRADING:

1:00PM: NDX hit the bottom at 1110. We went to put live trades. The orders did not get filled. We should have prepared the orders beforehand, but we did not. The market ran very fast after that (it is now at NDX 1125). We will cancel the order, and see how it will be behave if it retests. However a solid bottom does not retest, as it usually happens very fast, and has a V shape (V like in Victory).

1:33PM: with NDX at 1145. Take profits on position established at 1138 and 1139. Small profits of 6.5 NDX points.

PROFIT TAKING FROM YESTERDAY's position:

2:36PM: with NDX at 1189, we just took profits from position established yesterday at 1176 and 1174. Profits are 14 NDX points.

3:59: with NDX at 1241 we took the part of position we entered into in the 1190
area. Profits are 50 NDX points.

Total profits from postion initiated yesterday is: 65 NDX points.

Happy trading (tomorrow)!

Financials EFT (XLF), Fidelity Select Banking, Retirement Account

Financials EFT (XLF), Fidelity Select Banking, Retirement Account Investing:

You may recall that we made 14% on financial select banking which minors XLF. The current selloff is offering us a re-entry opportunity.

Therefore, we take a long position back in Fidelity Select Banking as of today November 12, 2008.

More details will follow, but we wanted the readers to know before market closes.

Stock Price Bottom Prediction: qqqq, NDX, NQ, QID, XLF, DOW (Wednesday November 12, 2008)

Stock Price Bottom Prediction (morning): qqqq, NDX, NQ, QID, XLF, DOW (Wednesday November 12, 2008)

11:33AM: with NDX at 1194, we starting to scale on the long side of stock market.

12:21PM: with NDXt at 1186, we completed scaling in.

We executed entry by selling ITM puts.


PROFIT Taking:

10:10PM: with NDX at 1199, we took the profits on the part we entered into at 12:21PM. Profits are 13 NDX points.

We will re-enter this part on retest of lows (if any). If no retest, the part that we left will do the work.

Re-entry:

10:23PM: with NDX at 1190, we re-enter the part for which we took profits at 1199.


It is now 1:56PM. The market is moving down, and this is the equivalent to taking someone to a back dark ally to take his money. We believe that the guys being taking to the back dark alley are the sellers.

We have been using a reduced size to play the long side. Now it is time to bo back to normal size, and if need be to even double the normal size. We smell blood in the market, and it is time to slaughter.

2:04PM: first step to go back to normal size is done with NDX at 1179. Second step is put currently as limited order in the area of NDX at 1174.

stock price predction: QQQQ, NDX, DOW, SPY, NQ Trading (November 11, 2008)

stock price predction: QQQQ, NDX, DOW, SPY, NQ Trading (November 11, 2008)

11:35AM: with NDX at 1211, start scaling in on long side of NDX and stock market. Position size being built is a quarter of normal trading size.

Implementation of long side is done by selling ITM puts on the QQQQs.

11:46AM: NDX is now at 1219. Call is good.

12:24PM: NDX is back to 1211, which is the level at which the call was made earlier today at 11:35AM.


PROFIT TAKING:

2:02PM: with NDXt at 1232, we took profits, which are 21 NDX points.

We plan to reload on a possible retest of the lows.



Here is a copy of the execution report. As you can read, we share what we trade.

Happy trading,

Stock price prediction: QQQQ, SPY, DIA, NDX, NQ Trading (Monday, November 10, 2008)

(READ THE END AS WELL: PLATO's republic and trading)

Stock price prediction: QQQQ, SPY, DIA, NDX, NQ Trading (Monday, November 10, 2008):

We could not post earlier today. It is time to take profits on short position.

12:39PM: with NDXt at 1248, short side position is closed.


Now we will attempt to go long, but with a reduced normal size position. Position will be a quarter of normal size.

12:43PM: with NDX at 1249, we are starting to scale in on the long side of NDX (and stock market) with the aim to build a long position with reduced size (quarter of normal size position).

12:53PM: with NDX at 1243, entry is complete. All we have to do now is wait :-). Notice again that we are playing only with a QUARTER of a normal size position, as the market is undecided according to other tools, and we have made profits that we want to keep. We might enter at lower levels if the market sells off and we come to the conclusion that it is worth adding to current stock market position.

To your profits, and good luck! Please let us not what you think of our stock trading!


1:51PM: NDX is now at 1261, well above our entries (1243 and 1248). Another good call. Long live the blog!

PLATO's PHILOSOPHICAL TREATISE:

I am reading Plato (the ancient greek) books. Those who have read his work (particularly the Republic): did you think about connections of his work, and rules for trading and investing? I might actually write a book about all the parallel I have established between his discussions on justice, and how they relate to traders, investors, bankers, and trading, risks, and profits in financial markets. I will post a link for you to get his book.

Any comments are very welcome!