qqqq dia spy stock market trading (december 5, 2008)

qqqq dia spy stock market trading (december 5, 2008)

(New trade at 2:43PM. Read it at end of this post)

(IF THERE ARE BANKERS/FUND MANAGERS/WEALTHY/ETC AMONG YOU, PLEASE CONTRACT US. WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF THINKING HOW TO APPLY WHAT YOU HAVE BEEN READING TO A LARGER SCALE. WE ARE ALSO PLANNING TO ROLL IT FOR OTHER MARKETS. CANADA, UK, JAPAN, and SINGAPORE ARE NEXT IN PLANS. ANY SUGGESTIONS ON ABOVE OR RELATED IDEAS ARE WELCOME).

After making 78NDX points yesterday, and 75 NDX points on Wednesday, it is now time to take the profits on the short we kept overnight.

10:24AM: with NDX at 1096 profit taking. Gains: 33NDX points.

10:43AM: scaling long side of stock market, with NDX at 1097. One quarter of normal
trading size.

Profit taking on long:

10:58AM with NDX at 1109.ish, profits taken.

Re-entry (long):

It is planned at retest of current market low. We have to wait and see.

11:31AM: starting to scale in long QQQQ eft. Size: one quarter of normal size. NDX is at 1102.

11:54AM: with NDX at 1116, profits taken.

This market is under accumulation. We would not short it. It can run to 1135.
We have other matters to attend to. We plan to re-enter on a restest of lows, or on fresh news lows.

We also plan to enter a retirement account position in XLE using fidelity select energy fund as vehicle. This is assuming the market holds at its lows today. We believe a bottom is imminent in commodity and energy stocks which may coincide with a top in the bond market. This could be a ferocious rally in commodities and commodity stocks.

1:55PM: with NDX at 1151, we are going short NDX (qqqq options calls). Size: one quarter of normal position size.

Took profits in area of 1139 (could not report in real-time)

Next shorting is planned at 1155 to 1160 (subject to confirmation).

2:43PM: with NDX at 1160 we are going short NDX (qqqq options calls). Size: one quarter of normal position size.

tomorrow open price stock market prediction

We thought to start a possible new column on prediction where open price will or will not lie. This information is in fact useful in making money in market. However let us first see how we will do with such predictions. Here is the prediction for tomorrow (december 5, 2008). We will do it for NDX, and we will extend it to spy, dow, and even individual stocks.

1. The narket will open for NDX below NDX 1,144.30,

OR

2. If it opens higher, NDX 1144.30 will be touched during the trading session.

Notes: prediction will be correct unless NDX opens higher than 1144.30 and never look back. It is easy to see how to make money with 2. It is less trivial to see how to make money with 1. We will discuss these things in future articles.

So keep the score, and let me know if you want some other predictions or if you want your favorite stock or index to be nailed here on this blog!

QQQQ DIA SPY Yesterday's Market Prediction for Tomorrow (Profit Taking)

QQQQ DIA SPY Yesterday's Market Prediction for Tomorrow (Profit Taking):

This is a follow up on yesterday's thread. We have made some 75 NDX points yesterday, and were left with two quarters of normal size short position on QQQQ.
One quarter was at 1141, and the other at 1165. We are taking the profits.

3:18PM: with NDX at 1123, profits on one quarter taken.

3:28PM: with NDX at 1115:ish, profits on second quarter taken.

Total profits:

(1165-1115)+ (1141-1123)= (50+18)=68 NDX points.

This is to be added to yesterday 75NDX points.

Re-entry:

3:46PM: with NDX at 1126, we are scaling back in one QUARTER short side of stock market.

3:54PM: with NDX at 1116, profits taken. End of trading. Add 10NDX points to the tally of today, which brings it to 78NDX points. (3 points more than yesterday).

Re-entry:

3:57PM: with NDX at 1129, shorting again. one quarter.

Long live the blog!

dia spy qqqq tomorrow's price prediction today (December 03, 2008)

As per the alert of in previous post, at 10:34AM we are back to reporting live on stock market timing and price prediction for December 03, 2008. The previous post of today is dedicated to the bond market trading. As it is an important topic that we do not cover as frequently, we herefore we switch this post on and off to allow for the bond trading post to be the lead story, but we will keep an alert on the bonds post for today's stock market trading in case we do so.

10:34AM: we took profits on a long stock market (qqqq, NDX, spy, dia) position we established near open, and we reversed to short side. NDX is at 1134

10:56AM: with NDX at 1146.sh, we are scaling in a second quarter of normal trading size. Direction short side of NDX.

11:05AM: with NDX at 1152, entry of second quarter of normal trade size is complete.

PROFIT TAKING:

2:08PM: with NXD at 1120, we are taking the profits on short position.
Pofits on short position are: 29NDX points on one quarter size (second), and 14 NDX points on the other quarter size.

Re-entry:

2:27PM: with NDX at 1141, we are scaling in on short side of QQQQ. Size: one quarter of normal trading size.

2:51pm: with NDX at 1156, we are scaling in the second quarter of normal trading size of short qqqq, ndx (same direction as dow, sp500, dia, spy).

The market is like a person with high blood pressure. The person wants to sit quietly to let pressure go down, but if touched it knifes the side that caused it to move. The bulls and bears keep touching the market, and each side get cut by the market knife.

In markets language, the market has high implied volatility. It wants to get rid of this high implied volatility so that it can have a smoother move up. To get rid of this implied volatility, it want to sit quietly or bankrupt the weak hands on each side. Once all the weak hands are off it, it will take off (smoothly).

Profit Taking:

3:03PM: with NDX at 1140, taking profit off on the quarter entered at 1156. Profits are 16NDX points.

Tally of profits for today (per quarter size):

26NDX point (long side which was not done in real-time)+29NDX+14NDX+16NDX= 75NDX points.

We might re-enter a second quarter on short side if market reaches 1165. Tomorrow is Thursday, and I do not trust thursday's for long positions.

Bond Market Top December 2008 (TLT top, TBT bottom)

(READ ALERT AT END OF THIS POST. TIME IS 1:10PM)
We were looking at the bond market which has been in a ferocious bull move recently. We have not completed our analysis yet, but from our preliminary analysis, we are likely at a top on the bond market. That is what the title: Bond Market Top December 2008 (TLT top, TBT bottom).

There are multiple ways you can play a top in bond market:

1. Shorting TLT EFT.
2. Buying an inverse bond ETF. TBT eft is such a fund. It appreciates when prices of bonds fall (which is equivalent to saying the bond yield's rising).
3. Buying puts on TLT (but we looked at the options, and the bid-ask spread are wide, despite a good open interest. Market markets play games sometimes till rules change and force them to have a smaller minimum spread such as what happened in the penny pilot program for options on some equities such as QQQQ, and other stocks.
4. Selling calls on TLT.

To be continued!

ALERT: December 05, 2008 at 1:ishPM. LTL is getting close to 113, which tis he area of the top generated by our analysis. The time of the top has come. We are going short LTL (selling ITM calls).

We would expect commodity-related stocks (such as XLE) to rise.

To your profits

tomorrow price prediction today: dia spy qqqq trading (December 02, 2008)

I did not have access to trading until a little after 11AM today. Let us get to business. Title of post is: Tomorrow price prediction today: dia spy qqqq trading (December 02, 2008).

We will start a short-side stock market position, but we have to be carefully in case this turns out to be a reversal day. We do that by using a reduced size position, and by selling out of the money calls(which we may hedge by selling some puts if things do not turn out to be right). Let us start:

11:11AM: with NDX at 1122.ish we entered a QUARTER normal size position by selling calls on the QQQQs ( QQQQ is the Nasdaq 100 eft).

Profit taking:

With NDX at 1100, took profits. Profits are 22NDX points.

Forex Trading:

We are also selling EUR and buying the british pound (selling pair EUR/GBP). Time, price and direction are:

11:58AM: selling EUR/GBP with eur/gbp at .8520 area.

2:07PM: adding more to EUR/GBP in .8535 area.

10:47PM:2:07PM: adding more to EUR/GBP in .8535 area.

dia spy QQQQ qid stock future price prediction (DOW,SP500, NDX

dia spy QQQQ qid stock future price prediction (DOW,SP500, NDX) (December 1, 2008)


10:06AM: with NDX at 1135, we would take profits on short stock market positions.


Forex Trading (GBP/USD):

There has been a sell off of the british pound. We are starting to scale in for a short term trade as we think the selloff may lead to a reaction, and our analysis suggests we are in the area of a day bottom.

10:38AM: GBP/USD is at 1.4845. We should be in area of today's bottom.

11:02AM: GGP/USD made profits, then went against the position. Since it is now back to profits (GBP/USD is now at 1.4860), we will take the profits, and decide later on a restet of lows. Profits: 15 PIPS.

2:55PM: GBP/USD is now at 1.4940. We could have made 90 pips, we if help longer. We took profits on the position too soon, but we do not regret it. This should be a resistance however, and the price should fall. We will take to buy on retest of lows in area of 1.4800 if it retests it and failes.