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Friday, March 6, 2009

dow spy stock market bottom March 6, 2009 (tomorrow and today's stock market prediction)

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dow spy stock market bottom March 6, 2009 (tomorrow and today's stock market prediction)

We have received multiple emails asking when we think the market will reach a bottom. We do not make the bottom, the market does. We just analyze the market.
The analysis you may have been waiting for follows in this post.

(Note: Read the note below on the topic of "Friends and Family Accounts")

Our stock market timing models indicate that the bottom of this market selloff is around the corner, most likely today Friday 06, 2009. If there is a selloff tomorrow Friday March 06, 2009, this should be the selloff that should clean the sellers, and a rally would emerge from it. The question is then: when will the bottom be achieved tomorrow Friday 06, 2009? We will be watching the market to pinpoint the likely bottom but we not be suprised if it happens towards the end of day is the morning is a red (because short sellers usually cover their positions before the weekend to avoid a short squeeze due to news and other during the weekend, particularly if they have profits and also if they suspect a bottom around the corner).

The sector of the market that appears to need a (final) selloff is the area of financials (XLF). It contains some slack at the bottom, which needs to be firmed up. This slack in the bottom of financials can be dealth with, either with a final selloff tomorrow Friday 06 2009, or with a rally in the morning without a red day, to reduce the slack. Either action should clean the last sellers from the market, but the most likely one is a selloff first. If there is a rally, the market may need to come later sometime during the next 10 days to recheck it, and provide the last chance for buyers to join a potentially healthy upside leg. In the next 10 days, our models indicate a trading range for the SPY between 66 and 77 (which for the sp 500, is 660 sp 770). Of course we may not touch these levels on either side, but they serve as boundaries to be aware of.

If we do not have a cleaning selloff tomorrow, the market may come later next week to finish the job of eliminating the last sellers.

In conclusion, the stock market bottom is around the corner. Most likely today Friday 06, 2006.

If there is a selloff that will clean the sellers with certainty, it is possible that the SPY may go as deep as even 64 before a rally that would bring it back up at the level of the close of yesterday Thursday. Therefore if the market suddently falls, then it could be a great opportunity to buy shares.

The bear may be done this time!

In case you may have noticed it, nasdaq 100 and QQQQs are not mentioned in the title of this post, and in the body of it, because they have been holding up in this latest selloff. The reason appears to be that the market has already cleaned the Nasdaq100 in the previous bear market. The market rarely contradicts itself. Since it already cleaned the bubble in Nasdaq, the November 21, 2009 market bottom called for here on this blog would hold. The next few hours or days will reveal the future.

"Friends and Family Accounts"

Stock brokers have what is called a "Friends and Family Securities Accounts". We will discuss what these accounts are, and why they might be useful to you in making money in financial markets. So please read the whole text.

Suppose you know someone who would be successful in trading your account, or that you do not want the hassle or do not have time to do it yourself, especially if you know of a friend who already does it well. So why bother to redo the work yourself, when you can just piggyback him/her---We are assuming that your friend is a successful trader and/or investor.

So you work out a deal on how to compensate your friend (exchange services, gifts, split profits, thankyous, etc). Your friend may have other friends who would seek his sevices, and may be seeking his services just like yourself.

Now think of that friend of yours, and the trader blogger who write on this blog.

The question that now arises is how to implement the trading and investment relationship with a friend. The most common, but not workable way that first comes to people's mind are: have your friend send you trades (which can come late, and/or you check them late, etc), and then you place them, (2) you can give him/her access information to your account (not recommended), (3) add him/her as an authorized trader in your account. All of these options have limitations, and do not address the real question which is that you want your friend to send his trades, but not have access to your private information and management of money (deposits, withdrawal, etc) since you want to keep control of everything. The solution is friends and family accounts. Here is how the concept works.

Some professional brokers have extended the technology they have developed for financial advisors (who have dozens and hundreds of clients), to the average smart investor who has a friend, a family member, or someone he/she can piggyback in making money in financial markets.

So they (some brokers) created what is called a "Friends and Family Accounts". These brokers allow a person, such as yourself, to open an account, and have your account automatically receive trades made by a friend of yours in his own account. Since your friend may have multiple friends and family members who receive his trades, professional brokers created a special type of account called "Family and Friends Account" in a manner similar to the financial advisor account. Your friend is not a financial advisor in the formal sense, so he cannot manage more than 15 accounts, which is the limit set by regulatory agencies.

Using the friends and family account gives your friend ONLY the function of automatically sending trading orders to your trading account. Of course it is you who opens your account directly with the brokers, and you can terminate the relationship with your friend at any time, without asking his/her permission. Your friend has no say in these matters, and have no knowledge or access to your personal information. All what he does is open a "family and friends account" and invite you to add in your account the option to receive his trades. So, you join when you please, you leave when your please. Your information is hidden from your friend because only the broker knows it.

Why I am discussing this topic in this post? Because it may be of benefit and interest to you, and I have learned of it only the past week. I discovered this type of accounts by talking to my broker after I have been sharing trades with a friend of mine, and more recently with an additional new friend and business partner I met via this blog and a trading forum. I have been sharing with him my trades. We have been doing it with very success over the least 5 consecutive trading days. We have more great return, and a modest amoung of money using only a small amount of capital. If you are curious to know, we made money each trading day for a total of around $1500 tying up only a small amount of capital (around 7K). This is a great return on working capital for a week. Most importantly we made money each day. Ask a trader how difficult it is to make money each day, and to make the type of return we have made so far.

I have been trading with this new friend via google chat. I shared with him trades that he puts in his account. This requires both of us to be in constant contact, and to have this new friend place the trades. So it is a duplication of work. I also have to do similar work in the account of my other friend. With 15 friends I would have to spend maybe one hour just to place trades, which is not practical and can lead to mistakes, etc, and the market would have move far away by then and one cannot make shorter time trades. So I needed a technology-based solution that would allow to share my trades with others.

I am limited to only 15 people who can join the friends and family account relationship. Two spots are already taken. Therefore, I may have 13 spots available in case some of the readers would be interested to receive trades in their account.
First come first serve.

There are related details to be work out between us if you would be interest, such what we trade, the capital needs, how to open accounts and other questons, which you may be interested to know more about. These topics would be long to discuss in this post, and some are specific to each individual.

If you are interested in the opportunity to open a family and friends account at interactivebrokers or have questions, please send me an email at address below, and put in the email header : "Friends and Family Accounts". We can discuss the topic via email exchange.

Regular readers of this blog have a sense of the successes and limitations of our trading knowledge.

Email address is: emailfinancialtraders (at) gmail (dot) com . It is written that way to avoid robots from spamming me.

To your profits!

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Happy trading,


Blogger cavygal said...

r there times when u have been wrong? u always sound so right in your blog.

March 12, 2009 at 3:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

These guys are always right. Im following this blog since its start and afterall I know it is better to follow their advice more or less strictly.

Please keep posting. Especially your last trading range for the next days is a great help.

March 12, 2009 at 2:53 PM  

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