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Tuesday, September 8, 2009

QQQQ SPY DIA Stock Market Top September 08, 2009

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QQQQ SPY DIA Stock Market Top September 08, 2009:

On August 25, 2009, we wrote on this blog "As we write this QQQQ are trading at 40.66. We believe that a roll down may start at any time. We are buying puts on the QQQQs. Let the selloff begin. The smart money should start moving it down when they are done offloading on the dumb money." . A selloff immediately followed, and the market never closed higher than the above level.

The market is yet a critical point. On August 25, a retreat was a clear one, but the magnitude was less sure.

Today the retreat is a bit less sure than on August 25, but if it materializes the chances of a move with a higher magnitude to the down side is great.

At 2:50PM, QQQQ is at 40.66 and our models indicate that a move down is around the corner if it is to take place. Proper selling point is between 40.66 and 40.76.
The selloff might actually start even until tomorrow, because the stars are not all aligned, but the alignment of all stars is not a must for a selloff to begin.

Our preference is to short some, and see how it will do later today and tomorrow. We would expect games played with the open price, for instance with either a gap up or a gap down.

There is a chance that they may push the market higher, since it is at a critical price level currently. It at a boundary of bull and bear lands.

In sum, QQQQs now at 40.66. We are favoring the short side, at least in the next 30 minutes.


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2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Its 3 percent up from your forecast.

Any updates?

September 14, 2009 at 1:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah and what about your forecast from end of July? We are now 100 points higher in the S&P!

September 16, 2009 at 12:49 PM  

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