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Friday, November 27, 2009

NASDAQ:QQQQ Live Trading November 27, 2009

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Some live trading of NASDAQ:QQQQ for November 27, 2009.

10:45AM: QQQQ at $43.67. Trading timing models tell us to start shorting. Model says to enter first quarter of intended size.

10:52AM: QQQQs at $43.71. Model says add second quarter of intended size.

10:54AM: QQQQs at 43.79. Model says add a third quarter of intended size.

11:06AM: QQQQs at 43.82. Model says add last piece of trade size to complete entry.

Now we address trade management.

11:23AM: QQQQ at 43.66. Money management models in conjunction with top of day timing models suggest taking profits on two quarters of position size. Re-entry is possible later in the day if timing models indicate it.

Closing Price Prediction Models:

We just run them, and they indicate that for the QQQQ closing price would be below 43.99. Therefore if QQQQs were to trade at that level and above later today, we would re-enter the two quarters for which we took profits.

This also indicates that the parts of the trade we left have a good cost basis and would be worth holding to for a potential additional profits. With the profits we took, our risk (assuming closing model prices) are around 15cents at most. When size is considered (which is half) we only have around 7cents as risk. This looks a good trade so far, as we are risk at most 0.20% of capital. The remaing position is now showing 16cents profits on two quaters size or 8cents when projected to full size. The prospects of a profitable day are good, and the probability of a loss amount and chance are lower.

12:26PM: QQQQ at $43.55. Models suggest that we take profits on one quarter of the initial toal size. This will leave one quarter working, and will lock a profit of 30 cents on a quater size, which remaing quater size entry at around $43.80.

This means that to lose today, QQQQs would have to traded above $44.10 later today, and not fall below that level, which is less likely, and even more further less likely particularly given the closing model prediction of a close below $43.98.

Therefore we have practically a winning day, and the possibility of more profits. The remaining quarter of size is showing 25 cents unrealized profits.

1:07PM: QQQQ at 43.37. Profit taking on rest of position. 43 cents profits.

All trades led to profits.

Have a good weekend.

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Happy trading,


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