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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Stock Market Top November 11, 2009 (9/11/2009) 9-11-2009

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Stock Market Analysis for November 11, 2009 (09-11-2009): stock market timing models indicating that a possible top is around the corner. Analysis of QQQQs is as follows:

Timing models issued a signal indicating the potential end of this latest up leg, and the beginning of a down leg. Today is November 11, 2009, and the time is 2:51PM. The analysis was done for the Nasdaq 100 index using QQQQ ETF stock. As we write this note, QQQQ is at 43.88, at 2:51PM on 9/11/2009 (November 11, 2009). The models indicate that a possible top is at most 20 cents away, but the top could also be the current price of 43.88. We would analyze the other indices (SPY and DIA). We would not be surprised if the current picture for SPY and DIA is to be similar to the QQQQs.

For tomorrow (which is November 12, 2009) we have analyzed some stocks from the Nasdaq 100 that we thought we would consider for the downside independent of what the QQQQs would do tomorrow. If the Qs go negative as we anticipate as per the post above, then it makes little a little easier but stocks can always go against a trend. Nothing is sure with stocks, and anything in life for that matter. Readers should not view this as advice or recommendation of any type. This writing is meant for editors of this blog ONLY so as to compare current analysis with reality tomorrow. If we have to short list 3 stocks from the 100 stocks for the short side of the market, the stocks our models say to consider on downside for tomorrow (November 12, 2009) are: SHLD, EXPE, and LOGI. If there is any bullish news tomorrow, it invalides the analysis we made.

We do not have time to write the details of each stock, and make a detailed analysis here. Some comments on SHLD as an example are: One of the models say that it would trade below today's close which is (around 70, from memory today's close is 69.83). The model says the likely close price would be below: 69.72 as a first target, around 69 or below as second target, and around or below 68.25 as third target for closing. The lows are of course lower than the close, and are more likely then the close, because the low of a day is always below the close of that day.

EUR/USD: Models also issued a short singal on EUR/USD. If this pair goes down, the commodities stocks typically go down as well. XLE is an EFT we plan to watch if this pair head south as our models say it would.

Happy trading!

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Happy trading,


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