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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

After hours trading QQQQ, SPY, DIA (NASDAQ:QQQQ), (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:DIA) April 19, 2010

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After hours trading QQQQ, SPY, DIA (NASDAQ:QQQQ), (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:DIA) April 19, 2010

It is now 4:13PM on April 19, 2010. The market is closed, but there is the after hours trading session. We asked the models on their views on holding an overnight position for the major market EFTs. Their suggestion is to short QQQQ, or SPY (with a preference to QQQQs) at the current price levels and above. The Current price levels are 119.92 for SPY EFT and 49.59 for the QQQQ EFT.

The reason for the preference of the QQQQs for this after hours session is that the model estimates that QQQQ price is likely not to exceed today's high of $49.66.

April 20, 2010:

We could not post earlier today. With QQQQs at 49.52, models indicated to close the shorts, and to wait for a new analysis or a possible QQQQ approach or retest of latest high of few days ago which was 50.19 to consider a re-entry. The last short time was done when QQQQ was at 50.17 (two cents from that high).

We have not rerun the models to re-estimate the bounds given in April 15, 2010 report. The range of 50.34 to 50.54 was the area where strong sellers were identified. We will work with these numbers until we re-run the models.

We did not run the models for the SPY and DIA at the time. We might do it for these as well.

12:18PM: QQQQ at 49.86, models indicate to scale in a short QQQQ position.

For SPY, the models say to expect for today strong sellers in area between 121.35 and 121.60, if SPY ever gets there today. SPY is now at 120.97.

We will also look an analysis of losers to see whether they can prevent the SPY from rising above 121.

1:11PM: QQQQ at 49.74. The high is 49.87. Therefore, models indication were very precise. With QQQQ down 12 cents, it is enough to do manage the trade to be a winner or at least be a no risk trade. We might discuss the subject of how to manage trades in a future report.

3:03PM: QQQQ at 49.88. Models issued a second short entry for today.

3:58PM: QQQQ at 49.73. There seems to be anxious buyers for today at 49.70 and below (typically short sellers who shorted at yesterday's bottom after SPY broke a trend line). We will see if they take their losses today, and if so, whether this should help market move down tomorrow.

The models timed the top of morning and the top of afternoon with razor sharp accuracy.

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Happy trading,


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