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Friday, September 17, 2010

Stock Market Report - Before Open of September 17 trading session

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Stock Investing, Stock Trading, stock market and currency markets:

In yesterday report this blog's stock market analysis models suggested to us that we take profits on this latest bull leg because of a possible retreat. Today they just issued another type of alert. In the case of the Nasdaq-100 index they are suggesting to us to expect sellers in the range of 1973 and 1.5% higher. The Nasdaq-100 futures are currently trading at 1972 in the overnight session, which is one point away from this above mentioned NDX area. This is consistent with theanalysis in yesterday report, which indicated to us that should this bull leg continue without a retreat that the models estimated the upsidat around 3%. We note that NDX 1973 is in the middle of this 3% range.

Given the ferocious of this bull leg (which reminds us to some respects the ferociousness of March 2010 rise, but there are some difference which will cover in the main page in a next post) leads to be cautious if we decide to trade on the short side of this market as per the models suggestions.

The bears might have been trapped, which would be consistent with the consecutive market gap-ups in this bull leg.

The models turned out to be correct when they indicated to us during the last stock market retreat, that it might become a bear trap. The models estimated back then that the stock market bottom of that leg was estimated at around NDX 1731. The market bottomed at around 1741, which is 10 points away.

In the currency market, the dollar is under pressure against the EUR, and the Yen is taking a beating. A weaker US dollar is bullish for the stock market because of valuations, and a weaker Yen is also bullish because the financing cost of stock market positions becomes cheaper.

Our models estimate the Yen weakness to stabilize, as to the USD dollar weakness it is still unclear at this stage as EUR/USD is close to the recent highs (within 1.5% of the recent highs).

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Happy trading,


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