Stock trading, stock market, Forex trading, Futures Trading: The Expirement

Dear readers,

(THE MAIN BODY IS BELOW AFTER THE CLOSE OF PARENTHESIS on today's activities: Today Monday June 30 I plan to play quartely option expiration, by selling strangles on QQQQs and defend them if necessary by selling in between strike puts or calls if necessary. Every three months there a quartely option expiration which typically goes unnoticed by the majority of market participants.

Updates: things are going good: 1) Bottom this called on Friday afternoon is still standing. 2) The strangles I sold needed no defense and I gained already more than half their value. MOST IMPORTANT: 3) USO (oil ETF broke the low of Friday). Many consequences: a rally in equities may come later today or tomorrow, there should be a retreat in EUR/USD, and of course retreat in oil. EUR/USD is correlated with oil. I plan to main play this scenario shorting EUR/USD (which is weaker than oil). If I were still short in equities or long oil, this may be the time to step on the side, and re-enter later at a better entry point.


Between 2:30PM and 2:45PM with QQQQs around 45.30 to 45:40, I have been legging a set of short July 46 puts hedged with short calls at strikes 47 and 48. This consistent with a potential rally/range bound, passage of time going into a short trading week due to holiday, and also because if market goes up or stabilizes this means that volatility would go down and my position is short vol. Premium is juicy, and I entered only a partial position to test waters and enter more later if judged approporiate. Tomorrow might gap up at open. Watch out!)

MAIN POST FOLLOWS:

Please read this post carefully. It has the potential to make you wealthy. If you are a new visitor to this blog, before you consider leaving, I sincerely advise that you think multiple times before doing so. This blog may not look to you as you may have expected it too, but please do not let the looks deceive you.

Let me share with you this. In the last 2 weeks, this blog has called the top of 8 days and the bottom prices of multiple others including the bottom of today. It is in the record of this blog.

In addition, the blogger has called the precise tops and bottoms of many other days in a public forum where the cream of the cream of trader hang.

But let us discuss things that matter to you. First I want to state that the blogger is highly educated (from a formal education point of view, with higher level university degrees), and has his educational background is in the scientific and mathematically rigourous disciplines. I am not stating this to scare the reader, but I did not want to write it or project it in this blog's image precisely because I wanted all readers irrespective of their background to stay, read, learn and return to this blog.

As a matter of fact, you do not need any of technical skills that I possess to do the work I have done, in order for you to benefit from the findings (similar to the case of a driver of a car who does not need to be an automative engineer to benefit from his car).

Let me start with the end first. I started recently an experiment to ascertain whether it is humanly possible to buy bottoms and sell tops on each day using live prices of 1-minute.

Let me show you the odds of nailing the top of just one day if one were to do it based on just luck. In the forex market, which trades 24 hours, there are: 1440 (=24*60) minutes in a forex trading day. In the stock market (cash sesssion, which starts at 9:30AM Eastern US time), there are 6.5 trading hours, and therefore 390 minute of trading.

To sell at the top price of a day in the stock market using 1-minute prices, the probability of one doing it is the product of the probabilities that each one of the prices at the other minutes is less than the price at which one decides that the price corresponding to a given minute is the top price of that day. This probability is:

1. for the stock market: (0.5)^(390-1), which is 7.93E-118
2. for the forex market: (0.5)^(1440-1), which is 6.57E-434

These are tiny numbers, and are extremely small odds.

The conclusion is that if one were to try, by luck, to pick a top (or a bottom) of a day at the one minute level, his chances to be successul are extremely small.

If a man does it relying on luck, that man needs 1.26E117 days, just to get one of the days right. These are a lot of days, and would need multiple lives to make it just once.

THE EXPERIMENT:

I developed some mathematical results and went out to test whether they can help me determine the tops and bottoms of trading days at the one minute level.

I posted my results live in a public forum for multiple months. Many people were impressed, but others could not believe it, even if I were posting my market calls in real-time, and each post has a time-stamp from the forum software which I have not control over.

Some people thought I was bragging as they probably have not grasped the reason of my posting of those market calls. It was not to brag, but to conduct the experiment, and obtain comments from others on its usefulness or lack thereof.

I then decided to start this blog for various other reasons:

1. I wanted to share my findings with a larger audience.
2. I also thought that it may be of help to others to understand trading, and make money out of the market calls.
3. Document the results.
4. Build a network with people like you.

The methods I use work for all instruments that trade and which cannot be manipulated by a small group of large traders. Currencies and major indices and ETFs fall under this category. Individual stocks of small companies do not. But the methods should work for a basket of stocks (large enough in number and in size that they cannot be manipulated).

FINDING:

I am in the process of compiling a report containing the results. The results are impressive, and demonstrate that it is possible to sell tops and bottoms with a probability clearly way higher that the theoretical probability, and I was amazed myself. The results are spectacular.

EXAMPLES:

With this method I have nailed all the major recent tops such as the latest tops on NDX (QQQQ, NQ, Nasdaq 100) : 2050, 2057, and many others that I have to look at the history to recall them all. The history is in the forum (I will upload it here) and also in this blog.

Just in the past 2 week days, I have called to the minute the tops of 8 days, and the bottoms of other days, including the bottom of today on NDX which was at 1829. (Please read my previous post related to trading on June 27 (afternoon) for the nailing of the latest bottom).

HOW CAN THIS BENEFIT YOU?

It can benefit you in in many ways. I plan to share with you many things I discovered, and teach you many things I learned. I have read more than 1000 books on trading, and have developed a lot of insight in addition to my own new findings that exist no where because I developed them.

Let me also tell you that one does not even need all the precision I have tried to achieve to make money in the market. In fact the market is more foregiving than what it could do based on my theoretical results and insight.

CALL:

I urge you to send me an email to add your name on the list of a by invitation only blog, and also in my list of people to who I am writing to share "secrets".

My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.

Best regards and happy trading,

PS: Send your enrollement email to:

emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Stock trading, stock market, Nasdaq 100, NDX, QQQQ, Friday June 27 (Afternoon)

Stock traders, stock market followers, and Investors, All traders:

(NEW VISITORS and NON SUBSCRIBERS TO THE BLOG: READ THE PS BELOW)

The previous post was getting long, so I created a post for afternoon stock market trading.

After nailing the morning bottom (actually predicting it yesterday), let us see the afternoon:

The last entry in the previous post (morning post of June 27 stock market trading):

1:46PM with NDX at 1829 I went long half size.

2:07PM: with NDX at 1840. I took the half position off with + 11 NDX points profit.


So far the bottom of 1:46PM is the afternoon bottom, and the daily bottom.

I am somewhat upset at myself for not staying the course. I took off the profit with the thinking of re-entering on retest of the bottom.

The retest took place but it was in area of 1835. As I was not in front of my computer when this happened, I missed the re-entry.

I am really upset particularly after nailing two perfect bottoms on one day, and I am have only little to show for it.

Anyhow, what can I do. Here is a tally of what I made by half position size:

A: (1861-1845)=16 NDX points
B: 1857-1857= -1 NDX point
C: 1844-1851= 6 NDX points
D: 1852-1851= 1 NDX point
E: 1840-1829= 11 NDX points

Total= 32 NDX points.

But I just feel that I could have done much better, and also that I could have played it on the short side as well.

Any how, I am going to call it a day.

Happy trading

PS: Email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com . Empty emails are fine. I will add you to the by invitation blog, and the list of people I email tips to.

Stock trading, stock market, Friday June 27 (morning)

Stock traders, stock market followers, and Investors, All traders:

(NEW VISITORS and NON SUBSCRIBERS TO THE BLOG: READ THE PS BELOW)

Good (late) morning! I could not post earlier today as I have had technical difficulties with my trading workstation and charting tools. It is frustrating, but I seems now to be back to normal. I traded just with mental price action!

With the exception of where to sell, what I did is exactly what I wrote in yesterday' posts towards the close/last trading hour.

I spent the night with half position at 1858.

Since they did not gap it up, I added the second half when NDX first visited 1945.
This took place at around 9:45AM.

I sold that seoond half slightly above 1860 (I wanted to take profits on the second half). That was around 10:ishAM.

I kep the first half until later, and exited in the chop around 1860 and 10:40AM, I got out at 1957 ( with -1 NDX point)on that part of the position.

So overall so far I made around (15)/2 NDX points.

Few moment ago, I re-entered half position on the seond visit to the lows at 1844, and around 11:20AM

11:52: took the latest half size off with NDX at 1850. 6 Points profit.

I plan to re-enter on possible revisit to 1842 and fail.

12:05PM: I re-entered the half I just took off. Re-entery at 1851 (will explain why later).

12:10PM: took it off with NDX at 1852

I am now back to plans to re-enter when NDX goes down (if it goes to 1842 and fails). But it may go up without me! Now I am flat.

1:46PM: with NDX at 1829 I went long with half size.

Read afternoon post for rest of trading.

PS: email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com . Empty emails are fine. I will add you to the by invitation blog, and the list of people I email tips to.

Know Tomorrow's Price Action Today (As well as the explanation)

Stock traders, stock market followers, investors, forex tradings, and money makers:

First let me start by saying that today was great money making day, and also that the positions entered into at the end of the day are already profitable.

NDX is up in after hours, and EUR/USD is made already 25 pips as I type this (read my post of earlier today where I indicated I am shorting it in area of 1.5760 and it is now in area of 1.5635).

Now the main elements of this post.

If you want to make money in the market, you need to see what the majority do not see. You need to be different, unique, and even "weird" in the minds of the majority.

Let me gives examples:

1. Yesterday (Thursday) I wrote that the market (NDX) should be shorted when it was at 1949. At that moment (in a public forum) I was told that I was crazy and that I have just put a noose around my own neck to be killed.

The forum is not a place for average Joe. It is a place where the elite of traders get together. Not only that, but the thread where the discussion took place is one of the top threads of all time, which calls the market using a system developed by a trader who states that he earned many world championship.

I was lonely in my market call. But to earn in trading you need to learn to be lonely.

Today we know what happened. The market tanked : NDX lost 96 points from the point I wrote it should be shorted just less than seven hours of trading before that happened. That is close to 5% on a major index!

2. I also wrote today that the market should bought at the close. The after hours trading showed that it was a correct decision.

3. I also wrote the rationale behind all these trades, and explained that shorting EUR/USD makes sense in this picture.

There technical and fundamental arguments behind all this. If I were speaking to you face to face, I would explained it to you in simple terms and fast. But since I cannot let me take just a little piece of it.

The price goes up to find sellers and down to find buyers. The place where it makes a U turn is the place where the strong sellers and the strong buyers.

Now what you need to know to know how to determine the location of strong sellers and strong buyers.

In addition these buyers and sellers (like fighting armies) are not going to stay static (stay put). The move in the price and time space.

My job is to locate them.

Now I analyzed EUR/USD and find that the price was in the neighborhood of strong sellers. This means that EUR/USD should re-treat.

During a retreat of this pair, the dollar would appear stronger, and therefore commodities will stop rising or just not move too much up.

This change in dynamics can create a "reason" for people to buy equities (or at least stop selling). Therefore it is a reason for prices in equities to stop going down for just few hours.

That is one of the reasons why I thought that tomorrow morning equities will either open up, or if they open down a morning rally will follow.

Consequently I opened and carried the half position size I explained in an earlier post.

Now the other reasons. The price of equities has move to a point where there are some buyers. But there is something else.

Imaginge for a moment that you were a short seller today. What would you do tomorrow? Well you could say I get step on the side and see what happens first before playing it on the short side. You could say, I will first wait for a bounce.

There are many people outthere who think like in the previous paragraph, and who have been selling short today.

Once all those people are on the sideline, and if the buyers do not move to the side, then buying pressure might overcome the selling pressure, and a morning rally can follow.

If the morning rally follow, what is interesting is that it may even continue to go up because shortseller who did not cover may start covering and the momentum can continue.

But if they open up the price up, then (unless it triggers short covering) the short sellers may start their work of selling and the price heads south.

But if price opens lower than the low of Thursday (today of yesterday depending on when your reading this), then the selling pressure will be less and the buying pressure may be greater.

In addition to NDX, the other area I am looking at is XLF (financial sector). My analysis tells me that we have short term bottom in the area of 20. And since we just 80 cents away some buyers may step ahead and start accumulating.

Now I want you to understand that the above analysis is valid only for tomorrow morning!

The overall daily trend is down, and the prudent and smart way to trade this market is to wait for rallies to prudent places to enter and then short.

First rule is safety. If there is a second rule, it is the first rule. Profits take care of themselves. The job of a trade is to take care of losses in two steps:

1. Avoid them at entry using various techniques.
2. If he cannot do one, then manage the bleeding.
3. And once a trade is profitable, the job of the trader becomes to make the trade in terms of gain locking.

Needless to say that a trader should only play speculation with no more than 20% of his total money in the market, and never allocate more than 5% of that money to single trade. Therefore a trade should play with only 1% of his money on any one trade.

I do not know whether you really have the above sinked in your mind, but I believe the majority do not understand that.

I hope the above was not too long and difficult to understand, but I just felt to write some raw thinking before I head to bed.

Happy trading,

PS: email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com . Empty emails are fine. I will add you to the by invitation blog, and the list of people I email tips to.

Stock trading, Forex trading (currency trading) Positioning for tomorrow Friday

(To sign Up for by invitation only blog and to receive trading 'secrets" email me at

emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Write whatever you want in subject and body including EMPTY emails.)

I am continuing to position myself for tomorrow. Rationale was given in first afternoon post.

1. NDX is up in after hours trading, which means that going long half size towards the close was a good idea. (read the rationale).

2. Now I am starting to short EUR/USD in area of 1.5760. This is compatible with my view of possible price action tomorrow morning in NDX. The reason is that if EUR/USD goes down, this would mean stronger dollar, and with it posssibly retreat of commodities (particularly oil). Therefore this could be given as a "reason" for a possible rally in the morning tomorrow.

I should be flexible in my views, and I may change them if my analysis changes.

The 1875 to 1880 area is now the first resistance, in which I expect to offload the half size NDX position.

If they gap down NDX, I would expect it to be down in area of 1845 to 1850, but we will know in the premarket session tomorrow.

Finally, the short of NDX in area of 1950 just 6 trading hours ago seemed foolish at the time, but time reveals the truth!

Happy trading (if you trade after hours and/or if you trade asia and/or forex )

Stock trading, NDX Second move in afternoon

I took 5 points on that up move to 1973.

Now I am going back again in with the half position on long side. NDX is now at 1957. I am re-entering the half position I took off.

3:58PM: the half position is in at 1958. Long side.

Stock trading, NDX, Nasdaq 100, QQQQ (Afternoon June 26)

First some remarks:

1. The price level of 1873 was indeed the low of the morning of NDX
2. The price went on many occasions about that price and reaching various higher levels. It went to around 1880 to 1882 at certain point.
3. I took it off with some minimal gain (around 2 to 3 points).



This is my play for the afternoon (and tomorrow morning!). If the market finishes at the bottom today, the price will do three things tomorrow at open time:

1. If gaps up
2. I gaps down
3. Starts where it ended.

If it does 2. or 3. I expect the price to rally in the morning from a low point reached early in trading.

Now to structure myself for gain no matter what here is what I plan to do:

1. Enter half position long side today. See below.
2. Consider entering the second half tomorrow if case 2 or 3. turns out to be the case and my price reading suggests to me an up move.

Now let me deal with the entering into the first half normal size position. I plan to carry overnight or close it in after hours if there are some profits in aftermarket.

3:09PM: with NDX at 1864, I am entering the half normal size position long side of NDX.

3:12PM: entry of half position complete. Average around 1863.


Happy trading,

Email me at: emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

stock trading, stock market, NDX 100, QQQQ, NDX, NQ June 26

10:43AM: with NDX at 1879 to 1881 area. I covered short position on NDX, and I started getting in on long side in pyramid formation.

10:59AM: with NDX at 1874, as I wrote in previous post, we are at the area of bottom area.

My prediction in the previous post was that I would get long at 1873. I could not wait, so I completed my entry at 1874.

Some minutes later 1873 was touched.

11:51AM: almost an hour later and the bottom of 1873 called for in the previous post shortly after the open (and before it is reached) is still the bottom of today!

, Stock trading, Nasdaq 100, NDX , QQQQ June 26, 2008

As I wrote yesterday, first buyers was in area of 1900. That is where NDX open today.
Yesterday's rally was a trap, and I am glad I played it on the short side.

At 10:19AM: NDX is at 1884. Buyers are starting to appear.

If it gets to 1873 or so, not only I will get out of short, but I plan to flip it and go long.

Scaling in in a pyramid style might also be a good idea. But since it is against the daily trend, only half a a normal position should be played.

Also I would like to note few things:

1. Today price action is below the whole bar of yesterday's price range. That is always a worry. And that gap is likely to be closed in the future.

2. Shorting on any rally is therefore dangerous, until the range is closed.

10:43AM: with NDX at 1881 area. I covered short position on NDX, and I started gettung in on long side in pyramid formation.

10:59AM: with NDX at 1874, as I wrote in previous post, we are at the area of bottom area.

My prediction in the previous post was that I would get long at 1873. I could not wait, so I completed my entry at 1874.

Some minutes later 1873 was touched.

11:51AM: almost an hour later and the bottom of 1873 called for in the previous post shortly after the open (and before it is reached) is still the bottom of today!

Stock trading, Forex trading ( Currency trading ) . Done with equities and now moving to currencies Time 3:46PM

Forex traders (I will not forget you!):

(READ UPDATES and PS NOTES below):

I am done trading equities for today. It is a good day (but could have been much better). Total profits in area of 30+ NDX points. It could have been better because if I took profits in the morning and held longer in the latest entry, I would have added another (7+15) NDX points, whihc would have made is great day of + around 50 NDX points, particularyly doing it against today's trend.

Forex trading of EUR/USD.

I am starting to trade EUR/USD on short side. Location of strong sellers is in area of 1.5725 , and strong buyers in area of 1.5650.

I am scaling in. First part of position entered in 1.5680 area at around 3:46PM.

UPDATES:

4:09PM: buyers to be tested are now in area of 1.5665 (and moving up with time). Strong sellers are moving down from area of 1.5730 to 1.5720. If the buyers are not defeated before they meet, then when the sellers and buyers meet I expect the sellers to win this round and price to head down.

Happy trading,

PS:

1. Email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com
2. You will be added to the by invitation blog list
3. I will start writing to you about markets, trading, investing, and money making.

Email is emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Stock market, stock trading, Forex trading, currency trading Fed Time Report

Dear all,

I am almost ready for the Fed action. Here is what I think someone with less experience should know:

1. Sellers and buyers take a good distance from current price before annoucement.
The above is a reason for fast and large movements immediately after announcement.
Think of as price trying to go search for strong buyers and sellers

2. NDX sellers are now in area of NDX 1948.

3. NDX buyers should be in area of 1902.

Let the action begin. I may not be able to post often as I typically dance with price in real-time.

I trade wih small position, but short time entries and exists (scalping) but I can change my plans.

I will trade both forex and the stock market.

Good luck, chat later.

UPDATE

2:39PM: I shorted half in area of 1943. Then covered in 1930.

Now I am, re-entering again in restest of highs. Current support (FOR PROFIT taking NOT for going long) is in area of 1925. Strong buyer won't show up until 1902 if they do!

second trip was done with less profits (7 NDX points).

Total for Fed annoucement dancing is 20 NDX points.

2:56PM: END OF FED annoucement trading. Back to normal. I will analyze chart and get back.

3:01PM: with NDX at 1949 went short (half normal position)

3:21PM: with NDX at 1940 I close short position off (result= +9NDX points)

I plan to re-short on possible re-test of high.

3:38PM: NDX at 1925: This is the area I indicated above I would take profit on short positions for today. I took my profit too early. If I still had my short position I would taken it here for +24 NDX points as profit.

Happy trading

PS:

1. Email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com
2. You will be added to the by invitation blog list
3. I will start writing to you about markets, trading, investing, and money making.

Email is emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Empty emails are fine.

Stock market, stock trading, Nasdaq 100 , June 25

Stock market, stock trading, Nasdaq 100 , June 25

(READ UPDATES plus PS below):

Here is my thinking for today before Fed announcement. The market gapped up but did not go above high of previous day.

I plan to short it in assumption of price coming back to previous close, if it does not break yesterday's high.

I will play with half normal size.

Details coming,


UPDATE:

9:44AM: with NDX at 1925, went short.

9:58AM (NDX just touch on 1917, so we have 8 to 9 NDX point profits).

10:21AM (NDX at 1925 is still today's top) (I am going to take a coffee break).

Back from the coffee break.

Got stopped out when NDX touched 1924 shorted after I left for coffee. One point gain but with commission it is breakeven or close.

Now the game is tougher for the bears.

But I will see if I should play it any way, after I look at the charts.

10:55AM; with NDX at 1937, I went short (half normal size).

1:09PM: with NDX at 1933, I just covered my short position for a few NDX points profit. I will wait until after Fed annoucement to eventually trade it.

READ POST ON FED ANNOUNCEMENT TRADING.

2:56PM back to normal trading.

3:01PM: with NDX at 1949 went short (half normal position)

3:21PM: with NDX at 1940 I close short position off (result= +9NDX points)

I plan to re-short on possible re-test of high.

Happy trading

1. Email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com
2. You will be added to the by invitation blog list
3. I will start writing to you about markets, trading, investing, and money making.

Email is emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Empty emails are fine.

Stock market, Stock trading , We Just entered a new stage, keep reading if you want to make money

Stock traders and investors, stock market lovers (including option traders):

(New readers, email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com to be added to the list and to receive trading secrets and be added to the by invitation only blog )

I have been doing well trading NDX, and just the last three days led to extremely well good results.

But now we have entered a price action type that needs a different way of thinking. It what what I call the second regime phase in a markdown leg. The first regime is done in the mark down.

It is the reason why I anticipated the three legs I discussed in my previous post (before the market open).

From now on, one needs to use a different type of market timing tools, and different type of money management and stop tools. To expand on this would need a longer column or posts.

I will write about this in the messages send to the members of the blog list.

But here is the message. If you are someone who is bearish on NDX and sells daily bottom breakouts. You should step to the side.

In the phase that just ended it is a pros one to make money, but now those pros can fall in trap and become preys.

The skill that is now needed is to time bottoms, and tops, and be vigilant to a break of the previous day.

I will post a system that I designed just for price action in this phase. It has never failed since I have used, and there is a reason for it.

For instance if you used to go short on a day when the price finish at bottom of daily range, watch out. The next day can be a gap up or if not a break of previous day low take place shortly after the open, and then the price goes the other way.

This does not make that the price will not go down further, but that the reversal can happen fast, and without notice including a morning huge gap up.

Again: we just entered phase two, it neeeds different tools, and most importantly a different MIND set.

Happy trading,

PS: email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com to be added to the list and to receive trading secrets and be added to the by invitation only blog.

Stock market, stock trading : NDX, QQQQ Nadaq 100 trading ( Pre market)

Stock market: stock trading, NDX (nasdaq 100, QQQQs):

(New readers. Welcome and read after the PS below. I got special things for you. Email is emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com ).

As I wrote yesterday, nasdaq is the weakest of the three majors (Nasdaq, Dow and SP500). In the pre-market of June 24 we would have a gap down at open.

Here is how I plan to play it:

1. If it races up immediately after the open, I would start shorting when gap has closed.

2. If it opens, and starts a bit in there, I would play it with half normal size at the sign of a morning bottom with the idea of a price rise after the morning bottom to close the gap later in the morning.

3. If point 2 turns out to be the correct scenario, then I would offload towards closing of the gap, and then I will short.

Plans may change of course, but I just wanted to give my initial thoughts.

UPDATE:

9:48AM: It is scenario 1. that took place, but I missed the entry on the QQQQs. The price raced up from pre-market price to "close" the gap, but it barely closed it. I was not quick enough to get in. I was shooting for a touch of 47 before getting in, but the highest it reached on my screen is 46.99.

Now I am on the sideline. The balance point is now around 46.70 to 46.75. Not good for shorting nor for going long.

I might consider selling a straddle. Therefore earn time value if no movement, or covering the call at day bottom, and covering put if price goes back up to 47 area.

10:24AM: With NDX at 1894, if I had a short position, I would take my profits now (or at least part of them).

UPDATE 2:

11:10AM: shorted XLF with a very small position at 21.65. Looking for it to go back to 21.40.

A few minutes later: Got stopped out of XLF at essentially break even. This is a sign of strenght for XLF. The rally of the DOW and financials may have just began!

11:18AM: With NDX at 1914 I am starting to scale in aiming for NDX to go back to 1900. (Half normal position size as financials seem to be headed higher today).

11:32AM: NDX at 1905. 9 points profits.

11:56AM: with NDX at 1921, I am shorting it.

UPDATE 3:

3:25PM: with NDX at 1903, I took profits on latest shorting.

Just to add that when I shorted NDX earlier today, I sold in the money calls on the QQQQs. When QQQQ when down (from 47.25 area to 46.78 area), the intrinsic value of the call went down with it.

At around 3:25PM, I sold ITM puts. This means that I have canceled out the instrinsic value.

The resulting position is a short ITM Call and short ITM put. This is known as a GUT strangle.

Therefore I have legged into a gut strangle, but starting with selling the ITM calls, and then to bank the profits by cancelling out the intrinstic value, I sold the ITM puts.

So I am still keeping a position, which is theta positve (earning on passage of time) and vega negative (sold volatility). Therefore I will be earning some time premium.

It is a profitable day, but it could have been more profitable if I entered at 46.99 on shorting the QQQQs rather than my order which was at 47.00 and did not get filled. After that I did not want to chase it.

If I have entered, I would have banked my profits as I wrote about (with QQQQ at 46.50 area), and probably would have gone long as I would have had profits to support me in entering on the long side.

The way the QQQQ behaved is however close to my vision in the morning before the market open. I do not feel good that I did not play it as I perceived it, but a profit is always better than a loss.

So there was some missed opportunities, but those of you who played it as I described it at the beginning of this post before the open, could make around 60 NDX points.

Happy trading

PS: New readers: email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com . I will add you to my list to the by invitation blog and also share with you trading secrets. Empty emails are fine. What whatever you please in the subject and the body (including nothing).

email is: emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Stock market, stock trading, NDX 100 June 23 Summary

Stock market, stock trading, NDX 100 June 23 Summary

Stock traders and investors,

I have added new profits to the profits of Friday. In addition to somewhere around 70 NDX point of Friday (starting from position helod overnight on Thursday) here is a summary of today's profits (please read the previous post to detemine time and price of entry and exit).

1. Morning: Shorted few minutes after today's open in area of 1940, and covered in area of 1915 (I could have covered a bit lower when NDX was at 1911, but my trading station has been giving me hard problems). PROFITS on this was: 25 points.

2. Afternoon: shorted when NDX was at 1932, and covered when it visited 1917.
PROFITS: 15 points.

Although the action today was excruciating, I have managed to pull 40 NDX points. That is more than 2% of the index, and I am not complaining at all.

Looking forward to tomorrow, I am concerned about the price action of the dow and sp500 and its potential effect on NDX. Looking forward to tomorrow, NDX is actually the weakest of the three on the down side, but the market can move together more often than not.

Therefore, I am concerned about the increased risk on short side of NDX of a sharp rally in the Dow.

I am going to analysis price action tomorrow. There is a chance that tomorrow, we may see a reversal, but I will study it and get back to you.

I will review the currencies and get back to you.



Happy trading,

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Stock market, stock trading, June 23, 2008

Stock market, stock trading, June 23, 2008:

I have had some technical difficulties with my broker workstation and my computer. It has kept crashing. I have resolved some issues, but some are still not completely resolved. I could not post until now.

My main messages are:

1. The stock market is still "guilty" from long side until proven innocent. I would step on the side if I were bullish.

2. I took gains of a long side small position I kept from Friday. I then went short side, shortly after the open (around 9:33Am).

3. I plan to take profits when NDX reaches 1911 (if it goes).

4. I am watching carefully XLF (the financial EFT).

UPDATE:

11:49AM: I am about to take profits on retest of lows. NDX is now at 1916 coming down from 1919. I may take my profits before 1911 if I judge that 1911 will not re-touched.

UPDATE:

12:16PM with NDX at 1915 I covered my short position, and stepped to the side.

2;20PM: with NDX at 1932, I put back 1/2 of my normal size on short side.

Some of my main concerns on short side are

1. The dow has been sold hard, and if there is a rally it can bring the NDX with up. Up moves in bear market can be violent.

2. The gap from Thursday's close to Friday's open is a source of worry, and if there is a rally there can be an attempt to close that gap.

3. The Fed meeting. The market may adjust itself in order to have room to react to the Fed on either side. Therefore it may have to move up to allow for room to go down in case of negative reaction to the Fed meeting.

BUT: I am sticking to reading price actions using my tools. Judgement and opinion can be wrong. But I wanted to write some of my concerns on short side. Now I am going yo have a late lunch.

UPDATE: 3:3?PM with NDX at 1917, I just closed the latest short position. Profit 15 NDX points.

Happy trading,

1. Email me at emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com
2. You will be added to the by invitation blog list
3. I will start writing to you about markets, trading, investing, and money making.

Email is emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Empty emails are fine.

PS: For those who already sign up, I am half way through in compiling the email list. So, please be patient. An email will be coming out soon to you (I was hoping to get back to you during the weekend, but something came up, and I could not work on it. In addition, I like soccer, and I am following the EURO championship. So I am guilty of spending time watching the matches (or at least some of them)).