Forex trading (currency trading), EUR/JPY is on "the blog tonight show (july 10-11)". Forex traders of the world: A forex darling would probably fall

Forex traders (currency traders), forex and stock trading blog readers:

Stock traders: I have other errands and other work to finish today, and was hoping that I would be able to trade and report later today, but it looks that I will not be able to for today July 11, 2008. I just read about the nasty un move in Oil. This price of Oil is really creating difficult times for everyone. I put some gas today, and I really felt it at the pump. I am looking into alternative modes of transportation. It is getting ridicoulous, and my wish is to see Oil price coming down and a great rally in equities particularly for the Dow. I am optimistic, and I think the dollar will rebound. There are some stocks that are really a great buy right now, and I wish I had time today to select some to buy for the retirement account. Have a good weekend and happy trading.

Now the main topic of this post: EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY pair was discussed in another post in this blog: "One of greatest unwind of carry trades is about to begin. I do not want to be left out. The conditions are ripe, the analysis is done, and all reasons are pointing to a massive move in a major currency pair."

That was two days ago, a move took place indeed with more than 100 pips profit from 168.90 to 167.80. The eur/jpy carry traders brought it back up today. Now it is back to the 169.00 area.

It is in a critical point, and the decent can happen anytime. In a piece we wrote, and that we plan to email you, we will explain the fundamental reasons behind this trade. Send the enrollment request to be included in the readers.

Write this in the subject line: "I would like to be added to the EUR/JPY trading list/blog/emails". Email info is below.

As we write this on the evening of July 10 to 11 2008, we are building selling the pair in the area of 169 up to 169.25 (if it gets there).

1:33AM (EDT): Chart containing entry is attached


Enrollment:

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Best regards and happy trading,

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July 10 (PM) Stock Market trading, QQQQ trading blog, NDX trading, Nasdaq 100 trading blog

Stock traders, Stock trading blog readers, investors, QQQQ (Nasdaq 100, NDX, NQ) traders and all stock market followers:

There is is the transcript of live calls made on this blog. It was a great day. Around 80 NDX point profits in around 5 hours of trading (I missed the beginning 30 minutes amd also finished early today).

After nailing the top area, and the exact bottom of the price action this morning (read previous post), also after foreseeing the price behaviour of this morning, and the "breakout" that was predicted to take place during noon time, we are now in PM session.

The breakout took place, but I am going to fade it.

12:11PM: it moved up, but I am not trusting it. I am scaling in on short side with reduced position.

With NDX at 1842, I started scaling in short side.

12:22PM: the top of 1842 is still standing. NDX is now at 1838.

12:53PM with NDX at 1831, I took short position off. Profits: 11 NDX points.

1:12PM: with NDX at 1837.5, I put back (ONLY half) of latest short I covered at 12:53PM.

I am stepping out for sometime and will be back later. I left in an order to enter the second half in case price goes up. Order to get in on short side is around 1846.

If it goes down this afternoon without going up first, the current short will be working.

Total profits for today: 39 NDX points.

At 1:36PM (During my absense, and as written above): Second half was entered at the exact top of the day. 1846! Long live the blog's mighty method. It nails the tops before they happen and during my absense!

2:42PM: with NDX at 1818 I covered my short position. Profits 24 NDX points.

Total profits for the day: 63 NDX points.


2:55PM: went long .
3:00PM: went long .

I just banked in another 15 to 20 ndx points (this thing is moving fast, so I could not count). So let us make it 17 NDX points.

Total for the day: around 80 NDX point! Long live the blog! Great day folks.

Happy trading,

Enrollment:

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My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.


Best regards and happy trading,

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Stock trading Blog Summary of July 09, QQQQ trading, NDX trading, Nasdaq 100 trading,

I planned to post this yesterday, but I did not have time to do it. I will write the post later, and now focus on the morning session of July 10, 2008.

I just got back little after 10AM, and I could not post earlier today.

10:19AM: If someone sold short earlier today, with NDX at 1819, I would now take profits. I went long with a small position (1/4 of normal size position).

10:32AM: with NDX at 1830.5 I took profits on a small long position I took on signal of 10:19AM.

Profits so far: 12.5 NDX points. I plan to re-enter if retest of morning low and fail (it should fail if restest this morning).

10:42AM: With NDX at 1838, I went short (1/4 of normal size position).

10:52AM with NDX at 1831, I took my profits on latest short. 7 NDX points.

Total profits so far for this morning: 19.5 NDX points.

11:05AM with NDX at 1838.5 went short 1/4 normal size position.

11:09AM with NDX at 1830 I took profits on latest short position. Profits on this one 8.5 NDX points.

Total profits so far this morning so far: 28 NDX points.

11:37AM: with NDX at 1836 I tried to short 1/4 of normal size position, but missed it. it moved down before I went in.

11:41AM: the market went back to 1836, and they did NOT fill me. The market makers may be playing games with me. Anyhow, we need them to make markets, and I am playing a game similar to theirs so I am their risk and I should not be too tough on them. But this one I entitled to as the market went back to the exact level it was at at 11:37AM.

Note: selling short at 1836 is not valid anymore. My order is removed.

11:54AM: In noon time the market will have to decide and come out of morning closing range. I am looking at plans on how to play it either way.


OFFICIAL: after reporting more than 30 minutes late to work, this blog has nailed the exact bottom, and nailed revisiting of this morning's top within 1.5 ndx points. It also correct foresaw the range bound action this morning, and played it accordingly (quick in and outs). Total profits (without what market making did) is 28NDX points. We cannot complain.

Happy trading,

Enrollment:

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My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.


Best regards and happy trading,

PS: Send your enrollement email to:

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July 09 (PM), Stock Market, Stock trading blog, Nasdaq 100 trading, QQQQ trading, NDX trading, Dow trading

The morning post was becoming too long. Morning session: the top area was nailed. PM activities follow:

1:54PM: with NDX at 1852 I took the half (I shorted at 11:05AM) off. Profit on this one is 15 NDX points.

Realized total profits so far today are: 30 NDX points.

3:42PM: with NDX at 1829, I just took the second half of short position off. I will calcutate profits later.

UPDATE on the "EUR JPY War" the Editor of this Blog Declared Yesterday. He commanded the battle of this morning. see chart attached.

Enrollment:

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My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.


Best regards and happy trading,

PS: Send your enrollement email to:

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July 09, Stock Market, Stock trading blog, Nasdaq 100 trading, QQQQ trading, NDX trading, Dow trading

Stock traders, stock market traders and investors, stock blog trading readers:

Salutations from this stock trading blog site editors (July 9, 2008)

9:44 with NDX at 1858 I took half of yesterdays short position off. Average cost of yesterday's position was around 1866.5. That makes a little profit of 6 NDX points.

I plan to re-enter on short side if restest and fail, or break out of yesterday's high and than fade it. This is plan for this morning only. Afternoon may have a different strategy.

10:26AM: with NDX at 1868 I re-enter what I took off at 9:44AM.


10:41AM: with NDX at 1859, I took the latest half off. Profit 9NDX points. Total today (15 NDX points on half position).

11:05AM: with NDX at 1869, I re-enter on the short side what I took off at 10:41AM.

11:41AM: I stepped out and just go back. I will check if yesterday's high was taken, but I could see the price have run down from area of previous day's high as if chased by someone/somepeople. Some people muse be waiting in there and praying to get out of their long positions established yesterday at end of day.

The price is behaving as described in yesterday's post when we discussed Wednesday and Thursday's typically price behaviour.

UPDATE on the "EUR JPY War" the Editor of this Blog Declared Yesterday. He commanded the battle of this morning. see chart attached.

I have now to attend to other things, but I am going to put in orders to complete a full size position on short side of NDX in area of 1880 if it ever goes there during my absense, and will revisit it if and as time and access to a connection permit.

1:54PM: with NDX at 1852 I took the half (I shorted at 11:05AM) off. Profit on this one is 15 NDX points.

Realized total profits so far today are: 30 NDX points.

Enrollment:

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My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.


Best regards and happy trading,

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July 8, 2008 (PM), Stock market, Stock trading, NDX trading, NQ trading, Nasdaq-100 trading

Price is behaving exactly as forcast in the morning post (and early afternoon post).

3:00PM: NDX at 1860. We are in today's top area as predicted earlier today.

3:09:ish PM with NDX at 1863.5 I started going short.



Execution report came in. See attached.

I want to add that since NDX broke yesterday's high, the market is now in the hands of bulls (buyers). Therefore if I decide to go short, I do it with half normal position size.

If tomorrow we have a gap up. then I might add to the position on assumption that the gap will close. If there is no gap it means the price headed south, which means current position up.

3:30PM: NDX is back up to the area of the high. It is expected. I called it the second horn of a bull. (Bulls come with at least two horns). The one hit is I believe the first horn of the bull and it showed at at 3:09ish. Let us see whether the second horn has any strength at all.

PS: Imagine a bull starring at you, and he finished charging. You will see that he has two horns one to your left, the second to your right. If the second horn (which is to your right is not higher than the first horn), then it is likely that the bull finished charging. Then you cut his second horn. He will then become without horns (a cash cow).

3:53PM: with NDX at 1869 I finished scaling in. If tomorrow we have a gap up to area of 1875 and above and fails, I will complete a full size short position on NDX.

Now (3:55PM) Stock market trading is done this blog for today. Have a good day and be fresh for tomorrow. Thursday are typically down days in a bear market, and usually the market adjusts on Wednesday for a down move on Thursday. We will see what it will do tomorrow.

I might trade the currencies for rest of day (if there is movement) or during asian session.


Enrollment:

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My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.


Best regards and happy trading,

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Forex trading blog alert, the great unwind is about to begin; We the yen buyers hereby declare war on Europe; Blog editor made the first shot; 2:46PM

We, the freshly new buyers of Yen, commanded by the Editor of this Blog, hereby declare war on the holders of Euro. We, named the Sumurai Traders, will defeat all Euro armies combined.

The rest of the story will fellow below, after a brief introduction.

Dear Forex traders, stock market traders, investors, and market followers,

Stop whatever you are doing now, take few moments, and read this very carefully as it relates to wealth building.

One of greatest unwind of carry trades is about to begin. I do not want to be left out. The conditions are ripe, the analysis is done, and all reasons are pointing to a massive move in a major currency pair.

One the darlings of carry traders is about to fall.

I have been shorting this pair live in public in the forum where the elite of world traders gather, and I demonstrated that my trades, for many months, are the best in the world for that pair. No one came even close to match me trading that pair live and in a public forum.

Now, I plan to take some forex traders in a private room for no charge by invitation only, and show them that I can make money in that pair by posting what I do live in real-time for all to see. Therefore, if you want to join us shoot an email (address is below) and put as subject "The Great UnWinde Is About to Begin. I hereby ask that you let me in. Thank you for letting me in". You can add some nice text inside if you wish so I can have an idea of the interests and level of experience of the readers. Emails with empty body are fine as well.

In a piece I wrote, and that I plan to email you, I will explain the fundamental reasons behind this trade.

Now this is the text I posted earlier today.

Time is 2:46PM, Day of the Lord July 8, 2008. Place: the battle fields of EUR/JPY forex market.

We, the freshly new buyers of Yen, commanded by the Editor of this Blog, hereby declare war on the holders of Euro. We, named the Sumurai Traders, will defeat all Euro armies combined.

Let the battle begin. The Editor just shot one Euro holder, and hit him where it hurts the most (the pocket).

From this place and time, the Editor of this blog then declares, in intention and in deeds, the start of the greatest forex unwind in history. As long as he is leading this battle, long live the Yen holders (the Samurai traders commanded by him), and very short are the Euro holders. The Samurais are strongly standing, tall, sure, and massive in numbers and strength from mile 168.30 up to the hills at mile 170.25.


This is the mother of all battles, and we will crush all euro armies combined.

Blog Editor and Commander in Chief of the Yen Samurai Traders in the war they declared against the EURO holders.

Enrollment:

I urge you to send me an email to add your name on the list of a by invitation only blog, and also in my list of people to who I am writing to share "secrets".

My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.


Best regards and happy trading,

PS: Send your enrollement email to:

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July 8, stock trading blog, stock market blog, NDX trading, QQQQ trading, Nq trading,

9:42AM: with NDX at 1844.4 started scaling on short side.


10:02AM: NDX went down to 1832. I took 1/2 of position off with NDX at 1834. I will explain why later.

Here is some of the explanation: 1) Since market is green, and if it is to continue and end green the price should finish higher than the open price. Since the open price of NDX is at 1830, one should expect some strong buyer at that level. 2) with this profit taking, my cost basis on the remaining short position is now 1854 (1844+10). I can now do various things: a) I can try to re-enter even closer the high of yesterday with tight stops. b) I can fade a possible break of the previous day high because stops are typically set right above the previous high, and when stop gunning ends, the price can retreat fast. c) I simply can take previous position off in case of break out with no overall losses but rather with overall gains. It is a good risk management practice.

10:25AM: while typing the previous paragraph, NDX revisited the high of today. I could have re-entered but I missed it as I was busy typing (now you the reader is costing my money! just joking. It happens.)

11:08AM: NDX is in area of 1825. I have other work to get to. I will check it later today. I would be vigilant. Buyers I would trust (if they win) are in now in area of 1995. Price behavious during lunch time will tell whether and who has the appear hand (sellers or buyers). If buyers win, I would not be surprised if high of yesterday get taken towards the end of the day.

12:00PM: It is Official: this blog nailed the top of the morning.

1:13PM: I just got back to my laptop. I could see that I got stopped out a bit after 12:00PM in area of 1842 to 1844 on remainder of position. As I wrote earlier today this does not suprise me, but I am suprised that it happened early in the afternoon. I was expected that if it happens it would a bit later in the day.

Now let me get back to doing my analysis for this afternoon.

I just looked at it, and when I did it was coming down from 1850.
You would think that I would have said to myself that I would have wished to be there for that short, but I am not. For multiple reasons. If the current trend continues first buyers of NDX would be hiding in area a bit below 1840 as they calculate that by around 3:ish PM price will be there or higher, and if not it would be coming up in to that area.

Stronger buyers are now in the area of the open of today and the close of yesterday, which means a set of buyers feeling good in areas of 1825 to 1830.

Therefore the maximum analyzed reward is in the area of 20 NDX points. One may say that the risk in area of 1850 is low, but on the other hand we leave ourselves in a position to either close it today (no problem if it is a win, but not pleasant if price does not move) or leave it for tomorrow with the possibility of a gap up at open.

Overall, I do not like it either way. Long or short.

First current buyers are in area of 1825, and current stronger sellers are in area of 1855. So I will be on the side lines for the moment. Better keep my profits than to take risks at this stage.

My potential buying level is in area of 1805. Selling level in area of 1855 to 1860. Both under the assumption of failure of sellers in area 1805 to 1800, and failure of buyers in area of 1855 to 1860.

2:15PM: I have to attend to other things. Will be back later. Price is currently behaving as predicted this afternoon.



Good trading!


Enrollment:

I urge you to send me an email to add your name on the list of a by invitation only blog, and also in my list of people to who I am writing to share "secrets".

My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.


Best regards and happy trading,

PS: Send your enrollement email to:

emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Strock market, stock trading: July 07 Nailing of tops and bottoms, NDX trading, NQ trading, QQQQ trading, Dow trading, SP 500 trading

Dear stocks blog readers, stock traders, investors, stock market players, forex traders, and all traders:

As you will read every page of this stocks blog site you would reach an amazing conclusion that has the potential to make its readers rich. As covered in the posts of this blog (read btoh recent post list and archives) a central point of this trading blog is to run an experiment on whether it is humanely possible to nail consistently tops and bottoms of the stock market price at the level of 1-minute. You will also find the probability of one doing this based on luck only is extremely small (((0.5)^(389)).

As it will be evidenced later in this post, the streak of successfully nailing daily tops and bottoms continues. I would request that you Make do the following:

1. Considering enrolling to the blog (where and how to do it is at the bottom of this post).
2. Inform your friends.
3. Inform forum members, as well as bloggers and blog readers. Also please put this blog in social bookmarking places such as digg, stumbleupon, etc. We appreciate that you spread the news. It keeps the editors energized to continue posting and focusing on nailing tops and bottoms of the stock market and other financial markets.

(Remarks: 1. Read this post completely. A major top is in the making in a financial instrument. You do not want to miss it if you care to make money.

2. To the readers who sent me emails, than you for your input and I am sorry that I did get back to you yet as I am swamped with work and did not managed yet to send you the emails. I am posting here so that you do not miss anything. But I understand that you want to be alerted via emails, and I am working on that aspect as well)


The following update has been added after the initial post.

UPDATE: After posting the post below, I went covered eur/usd, went long, then took profit, and then went short. The whole trade: around than 40 pips ( teens on the way up, and around 30 on the way down).



The streak of top and bottom nailing by this blog continues uninterrupted. After the nailing of the tops and bottoms of Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday (Friday was a holidays), today it was the turn of Monday's stock price action to be nailed.

As you will read (if you did not read it yet) the predictions and real-time market calls of today's morning and afternoon, documented in in the previous two posts, you will conclude that this blog have nailed today's top and bottom of the stock market in general and NDX (QQQQ ETF, NQ futures, Nasdaq-100 trading) in particular.

Some highlights:

1. The NDX top area of NDX was nailed at 1847.
2. The bottom area of NDX was also nailed in area of 1800 (Although i did not enter all my position in this. That is a reason why I scale in to avoid missing an entry. There are other reasons of course for scaling).

I am a bit unhappy about mysefl as I exited way too early in the morning.

If someone had followed the prediction of this blog (therefore removing my emotions out of it), he/she would have banked around 90 NDX points (45 NDX points on the way down, and 45 points on the way up).

That is close to 5% return in one day on a major market index without leverage. Do you folks understand what that means? I hope you do realize the significance of it.

Forex trading:

In addition I have also sold short EUR/USD whithin few pips from the top of today's price of EUR/USD.

Therefore I am glad that this blog nailed three daily price extremes (2 tops and 1 bottom).

I also want to alert the readers to the formation (almost complete) of a major top on EUR/JPY. I am keeping an eye on it. It would potentially be a huge down move.

This blog is then announcing that 170.ish is currently an upper bound of the top price of EUR/JPY. We are at best just 170 pips away from the top. 170 pips is just 1% of EUR/JPY.


Enrollment:

I urge you to send me an email to add your name on the list of a by invitation only blog, and also in my list of people to who I am writing to share "secrets".

My contact information is below. Just send an email (with or without a subject and/or body), but I would of course read and appreciate any comments and questions you have or simply an introduction about yourself in the area of trading and/or related topics.

Best regards and happy trading,

PS: Send your enrollement email to:

emailfinancialtraders@gmail.com

Stock trading, Stock market: NDX trading, QQQQ Trading, NQ trading July 7, 2008 (afternoon)

Stock traders, investors, forec traders (currency traders), stock market players:

After nailing the top of the morning (which turned out to be the top of the day), here what took place in the afternoon:

12:56PM: NDX at 1815. A good place to take profits in case it does not go down further. That would be 32 NDX point profits.

Area of 1797 is where I currently see strong buyers, but it may not go there. If it goes there, I plan to go long but after my calculations tell me that indeed the buyers in that area are strong and are defeating the sellers.

1:02PM: with NDX at 1803 I am starting to scale in for long side.

I added to the long when NDX revisited 1802, but not all my orders got in as I was not in front of my computer and NDX did not touch 1797. It stopped I think within a point from it.

As predicted, the area of 1800 was a bottom for NDX. Also as predicted in the discussion of the morning, NDX (and the market) run up towards the level of the open today. If a reader does not know why the market run up, and why it headed towards the opening price of this morning then you need to know more about the market. There is a fundamental reasons (in addition to short covering).

A principle that one should never lose sight of is this: the market never contradicts itself, (which I also refer to as the market never lies).

It was a good day.

In addition to the stock market I also shorted EUR/USD, as it is negatively correlated with the stock market.

In fact it is safer to play a long side of stock market, and a short side of oil, by shorting EUR/USD. It is also less expensive in commissions and leverage needs.

The reason for this is that if one wants to play a side of the stock market it is also better to play it in a trend. Well since stock market is in a down trend and oil has been up and is probably at the top, playing the long side of stock market by going long the market or shorting oil is counter (recent) trend.

However EUR/USD is already going down or at worse not moving up. Therefore a long side of stock market due to oil or dollar is better played by shorting EUR/USD.


Attached is a chart of my entry in EUR/USD.

NDX trading, QQQQ Trading, NQ trading July 7, 2008

Stock traders, Investors, Forex traders, and market watchers:

This post will be organized in multiple sections:

1. Some remarks
2. Summary of experiment (to follow later)
3. Today's stock market moves

Some remarks:

The forcaest made last week about the dollar vs. Euro took place. The dollar went up, and the euro down. The oil followed today. We have explained in previous articles, that a up dollar leads to commodities price down.

Equities (stocks) typically give a nod to this, and go up. But this does not mean we are out of the woods for stocks. It merely means that they may jump up before prices move down. A bear market has three phaases, each with two legs. We are in leg 1 of phase 2.


Market Moves:

10:41AM: with NDX at 1847 I am starting to scale in on short side (half of normal position size).

11:09: NDX is now at 1837 with 10 NDX points profits. NOTICE: I have to be very vigilent. The open of today was at around 1835, and today finishes in the green this would mean that top's open would be higher than 1834. Therefore, the price can do a lot of games to traders today. It could decide to go back up and even break the high of today. It can also go range bound for a tight trading range. And the scenario that would suit me best is if it break through today's open and close today's gap. I would then decide later, and may even go long if I reach the conclusion that it would finish in the green today. If that case I would close the short position, and then become long on anticipation of price ending in area of 1834 and up towards the close. I find today's price possibilities, very tricky.

OFFICIAL: The morning top has been nailed.

UPDATE: I took off my profits with NDX in area of 1836 (While placing my order NDX fell and I got filled with NDX at 1832). Since I have other things to attend to, I am planning to sell a strangle, and adjust it depending on price action if needed. I will however check the prices later and make a post. If morning top is taken, sellers are currently in area of 1856.

I am treating the afternoon session as if it is another trading day.